Is Moscow using natural gas as a weapon, as a means of putting
diplomatic pressure on Moldova? Is this punishment for Moldova electing Maia
Sandu a pro-European president?
Probably. The articles keep focusing on the significant back
payment that Moldova owes to Gazprom, the St. Petersburg based energy company that's
majority-owned by the Russian state. And yet I think the salient issue is the
contract deadline in December.
If Moscow can get the contract, I don't think they'll turn
off Moldova. It's not in their interest to do so. Leaving Moldovans freezing
will create terrible optics. It would be a gift to the West. As a consequence
the EU and/or the United States will come sweeping in with some kind of
sweetheart deal for the Sandu administration.
No, Moscow wants to keep Moldova plugged into the Russian
pipeline system. They want a commitment. They want a contract. The back
payments can be deferred or financed. This will effectively bind Chișinău to Moscow – and that's how Vladimir Putin would like it.
At that point I expect Western analysts to criticise this and
make a great deal of hay about Russia has forced Moldova into subjugation by
means of debt slavery- the current line being used against China. And they
would be right. That's exactly it. And yes, it's immoral, a weaponising of
finance.
And yet Western critics have no leg to stand on. Their
nations and banking systems do this on a massive scale, every day, all across
the globe. And they use their leverage to get concessions – infrastructure
contracts, resource extraction, and access to ports, airports, and the like.
And in particular the United States likes to build military bases to spread its
footprint.
It's a wicked practice but Russia is merely emulating what
nations like the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and others already
do.
See also:
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/11/the-contest-for-moldova.html
And just today we learn that Gazprom has offered cheaper gas to Moldova if they will modify their free trade arrangements with Brussels and delay reforms to their energy market.
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