Trump's Threat to NATO

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/04/john-bolton-trump-nato-2024

Some in the name of anti-globalisation would be more than happy to see the US withdraw from NATO. Others make a similar isolationist argument by appealing to Washington's 1796 farewell warning concerning 'foreign entanglements'. For whatever the reason there is a growing voice within Right-wing circles that is exhibiting no small degree of scepticism regarding NATO. For some it's simply a nationalist impulse and an unwillingness to contemplate spending American treasure and lives to defend some European country that most Americans know nothing about. Regardless, this sentiment represents a sharp break within the American conservatism that emerged after World War II.

In reality, this is a fairly stunning turn of events, all the more when one considers that for decades it was conservatives affiliated with the GOP that were the fiercest advocates of the alliance. This is testimony to the rapid shifts taking place within the American Right – radical shifts that many of its commentators have chosen to downplay or ignore.

Ultra-nationalism has led to a despising of such obligations, while others have grasped something of the magnitude of US military spending and want to see it curtailed. But how few of these fiscal hawks, libertarians and isolation-driven nationalists understand what drives the system? What is that drives the US to project its power internationally? Why does the US build and operate within frameworks such as NATO?

Very few grasp the fact that it is Wall Street, it is capitalism that motivates and drives the push toward internationalism. The mammon machine wants access to markets, trade, and it needs mechanisms to work with – and block adversaries from access to the same. It also needs a means to protect investments and this is where the military comes into play.

The United States emerged from WWII the most powerful empire in history and yet it's an empire obscured – permanently dancing the seven veils as it were. It hides its face by means of various structures and masks. Speaking of democracy and liberalism, the US Empire uses all the fiscal, military, political, covert, and diplomatic tools in its arsenal to impose its will. All of these facets contain aspects or threats of violence which is fundamental as to how power works – from the businessman wielding his lawyers, the mobster his hitmen, and the politician his armies, the threat of violence is at the heart of power.

The US employs various agencies, bureaucracies and frameworks to run its empire, browbeat its satraps, cow its subjects, and threaten its enemies. It also employs narratives and concepts, one of the major frameworks being Atlanticism of which NATO is an open and explicit expression.

For the American Empire, NATO has been one of the most powerful and effective means of projecting power. While the end of the Cold War in 1991 presented a scenario in which the organisation might be rendered obsolete and superfluous, within a short time it unofficially modified its charter, got directly involved in active wars and started to rapidly expand. It was like NATO 2.0 – and it's this NATO that has unsettled the geopolitical framework and has become a provocation to other regional powers.

The dynamics of the relationship between the United States and Europe are complicated – sometimes they are partners and other times they are rivals. On another level Europe by means of NATO and other structures is subservient to Washington. Some elements within NATO and the EU are less friendly to Washington, others more so.

Post-Cold War NATO expansion has played a critical role in fomenting the Ukraine crisis which resulted in the Russian annexations and invasions of 2014 and 2022. If NATO is removed from the scene, Putin would have no reason to invade. This is why nothing happened under Trump.

Contrary to the narratives of the MAGA cult, Putin was not intimidated and thus restrained by the Trump administration. Instead it was Trump's policies and rhetoric that were undermining NATO – and Putin had no reason to fear it during Trump's term. NATO was weakened and in a state of decline and thus Putin could simply stand by. But under Biden, NATO was revivified and thus Moscow believed (rightly or wrongly) that it had to act.

Some are able to see something of this larger picture and as such would celebrate a US withdrawal from NATO – a move that would see the alliance (as we know it) effectively collapse. At the very least a US withdrawal would see it transform into something else – a new alliance with different goals.

Regardless of what such a move might mean for Europe, it would certainly weaken the American hand and eliminate its claims to Western leadership. Atlanticism as an idea would be more or less dead. The US would revert to being a regional power and it would struggle to project itself globally. American financial interests would take a hit – as is clear enough by the number of nations already pulling back from the United States or resentful of its influence – more fallout from the Trump administration and the Biden attempt to rectify his destructive patterns. Rather than make America great, such a withdrawal would mark a period of rapid decline and in frustration the US might be provoked to act in terms of war.

I would not lament the collapse of NATO, but for those on the Right (and Left) who wish it – be careful what you wish for. You may not like the result.

It is sad statement of the times that John Bolton is being consistently given a voice and a platform from which to speak – both in the American and British press. This morally degenerate man obviously has some powerful supporters – people who want his voice and positions heard. In this case I don't believe he really supports Trump and may be sounding the warning. The message is unlikely to get through to the MAGA masses, but there are some voters and politically-minded who will understand just how grave a threat Trump is to the US Establishment and all that has been built post-1945. Trump seriously harmed US prestige and strength during his tenure. A second Trump presidency will likely do irreparable harm and mark a watershed, a historical moment in which American decline can be marked and measured.

It is therefore not difficult to understand why there are forces so desperate to stop Trump. It's not because they're globalist communists, but rather people deeply invested in the American Empire and its capitalist system. Their capitalism is not the ivory-tower capitalist theory of the Libertarian sects but rather real-world capitalism connected to vast troves of wealth and resources. They do not want to see Donald Trump wreck their multi-generational project and as such they are most certainly trying to derail him by means of the judiciary. He's guilty of course and they haven't pursued him on the most serious of charges (as it would open up a multifaceted political can of worms and generate an existential crisis for the US system) but there's no doubt a political motivation behind the 'piling on' of indictments. Any other politician would have bowed out – think of Gary Hart for example. Back then the allegations of his affair were enough to take him down as he was in possession of a thing called shame – something Trump lacks, a virtue alien to his character.

All the normal means and methods of removing a politician aren't working with Trump and there's no doubt a feeling desperation as many possible scenarios are weighed. I think an earlier generation would have just removed him from the picture but in some respects it's more difficult to do in these digital days along with their nascent threat of social upheaval. Likewise, this also touches on the real divisions within the corridors of power. There is a genuine conflict – even within the Deep State as to what course to take. I'm sure some believe (as they did back in 2016) they can control him and use him to their ends. I think some believe they were effective in this and others would argue they failed miserably and his presidency was an unmitigated disaster.

And these same people would view a US withdrawal from NATO as a historical disaster of epic proportions. As such, you can be sure that there are men willing to take extreme measures in order to block Trump.

We are told to pray for the peace of the city. I'm not always sure what that looks like as I can't imagine the exiled Jews praying for the flourishing of the Babylonian Empire and its military conquests. We can't pray for that but for those who have studied history, the prospect of chaos is nothing to shrug off nor would we want to encourage it either. If there was a peaceful way to stop the machine, I would be encouraged – but there isn't. All options are bad and seemingly getting worse.

We need to understand at least something of how all this works – then we can understand why people are reacting the way they are and be attuned to dangers and of the many would use and manipulate the Church. The wolves aren't just on the loose within the Church – they're in a state of frenzy.

Win or lose the fact that Trump is in the race bodes ill. Should he die it's hard to imagine how his cult will react.

But the people who have invested billions and even trillions of dollars in these vast imperial mechanisms are not going to just sit by and watch some fool destroy it all.

Needless to say, this is a story that bears watching.