Another French Defeat and Growing Uncertainty in North Africa

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66907517

This story is already falling out of the news cycle especially with all the other things happening in the Middle East.

After the July coup in Niger there was a great deal of focus on the country and the new ruling junta. The signs were bad (from a Western perspective) when Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland made a trip to Niger and was effectively rebuffed.

Since then things have seriously deteriorated with France and now Paris is pulling its troops out – a real setback for their designs on West Africa. Time will tell if the trade between the two countries is affected. But at present France is not pleased. And the trade is not a small issue as France is heavily dependent on nuclear power and a lot of the needed uranium comes from Niger.

Western media tends to focus on the recent Africa pivot to nations like Russia and China and how increasingly these poor and unstable countries don't want to deal with former colonial powers like France and Britain or even the United States. As many will already know Washington maintains a base in Niger which is used for drone missions and certainly much more.

After the initial failed efforts of Nuland, it seemed like some kind of arrangement was in the works – a situation that would allow the Americans to stay and use the base, even as the French were being driven out.

This is interesting because Western media rarely if ever focuses on the Paris-Washington rivalry in Africa or even the larger geopolitical contest that has been taking place for decades. They are allies but also rivals and many nations seeking to triangulate their relations will look to France, especially for military hardware. The American have been angered by this more than once and in Africa the contest is elevated as both nations are deeply invested in the politics of the continent and the scramble for its resources. Collectively they are opposed to China (and more recently Russia) but they also try to outmaneuver each other. The media focuses on the BRICS/SCO vs. the US/EU/NATO/G7 blocs – but it's not that simple. These blocs are not as unified as some would make them out to be.

There have been many coups in Africa over the past couple of years and commentators have noted that in many of the cases the military officers involved were trained by the United States and thus have established relationships with US military, diplomatic, and intelligence officials – all of which can overlap with corporate interests.

Legally the US most oppose all coups and yet the reality is something different. The language is tinkered with and there have been numerous occasions in which the legal issues are swept under the rug. Just in the last few days the Biden administration has designated the takeover as a 'coup' – we'll have to see what that means. This will put a stop to aid and official military assistance. The junta may get upset and tell the US to get out as well. Or it may be a bargaining chip. It's too soon to tell.

The US colossus often operates at cross purposes – the State Department has its concerns and must dot its 'i's and cross its 't's – but the military, CIA, and Wall Street have other concerns and will often circumvent the law or policy of other branches. And with regard to the business side of things, sometimes the FBI comes into play. It's a real song and dance at times and yet internationally more often than not the Deep States players in the military, intelligence and yes, the business world get their way.

Sometimes it requires some time to smooth things out or maybe a shakeup six months later. But one way or another it gets done.

As stated, recent reports suggest the US is staying and a deal will be cut with the junta.

So in other words France is out but the US is staying. 

I think that's a rather significant angle to this story and a noteworthy one. It may be coincidence or it just might be highly significant. Call me a cynic but I tend toward the latter.

We'll have to watch and wait and see what happens. With the new 'coup' recognition by Biden, the situation has taken on a new degree of volatility.

Regardless, France has faced a significant defeat for its policy. It's unclear if the US is going to capitalise on this or if Washington's policy will also suffer and the Americans will be forced to look for a new host country. You can be sure Washington does not want to leave West Africa. There's too much there in terms of resources and the larger geopolitical contest. And if one looks ahead ten and twenty years its importance only grows.