The Threats to Schengen have not Dissipated

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2023/09/12/france-to-boost-police-presence-on-italian-border_b3f54da7-e108-4316-a3c3-be379a53865e.html

During the height of the refugee crisis in 2015, it looked as if the Schengen Treaty (which provides open internal borders within the EU) was ready to collapse. The EU weathered the storm, but there are still tensions – and in some cases these tensions are fueled by external considerations.

France and Italy ended up on opposite sides during the height of the Libyan Civil War (2014-2020) – each supporting a different faction. Obviously Libya faces a new threat of instability in light of the recent devastating floods. And the flow of refugees from North Africa has not stopped. In fact the island of Lampedusa (located between Malta and Libya) was in the news the other day when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited and (begrudgingly no doubt) pledged to support Italy as the Meloni government continues to cry foul. In this case it's not her Right-wing government's anti-immigrant policies per se but the fact that other EU members refuse to step up and play their part in processing asylum seekers.

France has now boosted its safeguards on the Italian border, repeating events from last year. Paris claims that Italy is allowing too many immigrants to traverse their territory and it's a threat to France. One wonders how much of this is due to the political animosity between Rome and Paris. Regardless, the move by France has (it would seem) prompted Brussels to get involved as it represents a breakdown in the Schengen agreement. It was bad enough to see nations like Hungary trying to close its borders. But to have prime EU member states like Italy and France engaged in this sort of thing does not bode well and sets a bad precedent.

Given events in Morocco and Libya, and if one steps back and takes in the big picture in terms of Africa, the only conclusion is this – they haven't seen anything yet. The years to come and going to present serious challenges to the EU and its borders – and the Schengen Treaty. The Frontex Coast Guard Agency is supposedly there to help and rescue migrants and yet it's clear enough that its main purpose is to deter and to drive these boats back into Africa. Outrage has been expressed over the hundreds of deaths near Greece – as the Greek Coast Guard has been blamed for the incident with survivors insisting the sinking was deliberate – or at best a case of negligence.

How many other incidents like this have taken place – at least on a smaller scale?

Africa is in turmoil and state entities like the US, UK, and EU are trying to establish buffer regimes that will hold back the migrant tide. Even as they do this, coups are taking place at a rapid clip and there is threat of regional war. Ironically this will only produce more refugees. Tens of thousands have died in transit and it's an unfortunate reality that almost no one cares. Try as they might, the regimes cannot put a positive spin on their tragic situation and their deaths – as they have attempted to do with the people fleeing Ukraine.

2015-2016 shocked Europe and leaders like von der Leyen don't want to see a repeat. Additionally, if they don't act in concert the end result is going to be more Far Right-wing governments – as was just seen in Fico's return to the helm of Slovakia. This France-Italy story is just kind of simmering at present but I think the clock is ticking and when this bomb explodes it's really hard to say what will be the result. Governments toppled? It's likely. War? The collapse of the EU? It may seem distant at present but it's not hard to imagine.