We all knew that Trump was going to tear NATO apart. After less than a month in office the process has already begun in earnest. I watched coverage of the Vance speech in US media and let's just say they're not covering the real scope and impact of what the vice-president said - let alone the response or the larger context going back to the first Trump administration and before.
There are so many things that could be said about Vance's speech but something really stuck out to me - and it's something I've heard no one talking about.
Vance berated the European leadership for 'firewalls' and insisted that 'Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters.' In other words the will of the people should triumph over ideals or institutional safeguards. Obviously he was thinking of the recent move to block a Georgescu victory in Romania. He's clearly upset by moves made by the German Establishment to block the AfD from government in some of its states.
Remember, the German elections are held the last week of February. And it's so very convenient (for the AfD) that just days out an Afghan refugee rams his car into a crowd. The earlier Christmas Market episode in December 2024 didn't work as the perpetrator (though an immigrant) was demonstrated to be pro-AfD. This time, they got the attack they needed and wanted. If the past provides any kind of precedent, it will be discovered that this man was on the BND's radar and perhaps even connected to them. We saw similar such episodes during the Syrian War (and immigration crisis) which itself was a sequel to similar events back in the 1970's and 1980's.
There have been other episodes of the Establishment blocking popular democracy - the French parties coming together to block LePen's National Rally (RN) or in the Netherlands the behind-the-scenes maneuvering to prohibit Geert Wilders from forming a coalition.
And yet, whenever the Democrats are in control and speak in terms of public support for abortion and sodomite marriage, the Right falls back on the old 'We're a republic, not a democracy' line.
In other words the law - the US Constitution is a 'firewall' that blocks populist sentiment from overtaking the country. The Electoral College is itself just such a firewall - and one the Republicans desperately need in order to win elections. The idea is that the people cannot democratically vote to overthrow the Constitutional system. It must be remembered that Hitler was voted into office. He secured and consolidated his power through dictatorial means but he was elected. This is a warning about the dangers of 'pure' populist democracy.
And yet when such a move favours the American Right, they are more than willing to embrace it and will happily scorn not only laws and institutions but the vox populi.
Do they not know that they are speaking with forked tongues?
I think many or maybe most of them do. They simply do not care. All that matters is winning. The great irony for the Christian Right is that the very markers of cultural decline that motivated them in the 1970s have now been embraced by them - even as they declare victory. Selling their souls in a Faustian bargain, they have also blinded themselves and seared the consciences and can no longer recognize truth from lies. They're every bit as corrupt and morally bankrupt as the decadent left-wing they criticise.
And if you visit the FOX website, you enter an alternate universe where there are no controversies or scandals. Everything is rosy and wonderful. Trump is fixing everything and the world is getting better and better every day. He's making America great again and yet before the year is up he will have dismantled key sections of the American Empire. The damage was pervasive by the end of his first term and Biden made a serious effort to repair some of the wreckage - but ultimately he failed to do so. Trump is now being more aggressive and it's hard to imagine Atlanticism (a core plank of the post-war American Empire) surviving.
Not thirty days into his presidency and already Europe is thinking about NATO without America - a long-shot to say the least. Atlanticism is already on the rocks. Vance's speech will prove historic, but not as a moment of American greatness but as the moment America broke the European wing of its empire and turned the satrapies loose.
Now what will be very interesting to see is this....
There are nationalists is Europe that have dreamed of this moment. De Gaulle certainly did. This will be their moment and you'll see the strong nations (which currently have weak leaders) attempt to flex their muscle and assert their leadership. Germany is in political turmoil and Macron is weak and effectively a 'lame duck'. The UK is no longer part of the EU and in terms of NATO membership - Starmer hasn't been very impressive.
It's Meloni's moment to be sure and yet her triangulation - embracing the EU within her nationalist neo-fascist framework has itself split the Right. There will be the Rightists who will want to seize control of the EU and those who will want to use this moment to break the power of Brussels (headquarters of both NATO and the European Union).
The Centrists and Left will make the most of this divide within the Right. Sadly, the moment calls for strong leaders - titan-like figures who can pull nations and blocs together. We may see something of that or we may see fragmentation.
The fear will be that Putin (who is now 72) will capitalize on this and invade Europe. I don't think that's what he's after but he will certainly shed no tears if Europe implodes. And as I have long suggested, the collapse of these institutions will allow history to rear its head and the forces of irredentism will be unleashed. One thinks of the former Yugoslavia and Hungary - as well as Moldova, and even places like Catalonia, and the Basque country. And there are plenty of other disputed areas, frontiers, and interests that could easily lead to trouble in Europe. And then of course there's Ukraine. It seems at the moment that Trump might keep up a low level of support for the Kyiv regime - if he can get his hands on resources as payment.
The Politico article (linked below) fails to properly contextualise the questions on the table but it does aptly report on the chaos and angst Trump has unleashed and the new scramble for a solution.
The article is right that Putin will not launch any invasions while Trump is president. It needs to be explained this is not because he fears or respects Trump but due to the fact that with Trump in office there's no reason for him to fear. Trump has done more in a matter of weeks to dismantle NATO than Putin could hope to do in years. Some present this as evidence that Trump is a tool or creature of Putin. Not at all. There's no evidence to suggest that's the case. It's that Trump is just that ignorant of how the world works and how American power works. He and his cult think they're strengthening America's hand. They are in reality sawing off the branch upon which they are sitting. That will become clear in time but they already know how to spin the chaos and have so many tools and willing agents, they don't fear that moment - a crisis that would easily bring down other regimes.
See also:
https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2024/02/atlanticisms-attempt-to-curtail-rise-of.html
https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-meloni-problem-i.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2022/05/atlanticism-mccarthyism-and-intra.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/06/orbans-flirtations-with-hungarian.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2024/09/orbans-habsburg-dreams-in-hungary-and.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2024/06/right-wing-circularity-and-cross.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2024/08/meloni-and-dilemmas-of-liberalism.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2024/12/politicos-most-powerful-in-europe.html
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