The Taliban in Belgium

https://www.euractiv.com/news/taliban-envoy-abdul-qahar-balkhi-to-lead-delegation-to-brussels/

The Taliban does not want to do business with the United States. Given the bad blood connected to the horrific war of the 1980's, it's surprising that Kabul would want anything to do with Moscow either, but indeed it would seem the two nations are proceeding on the basis of common interests. China looms over all and while the Taliban looks to Beijing as its primary foreign investor, the Afghan leadership knows that it's in their interest to diversify - lest they become wholly dependent on Beijing.

There have been some tensions with Beijing over attacks on Chinese workers - usually attributed to ISIS-K, which (though it baffles many Americans) the Taliban is also keen to fight. But the real disconcerting aspect of Kabul-Beijing relations is connected to the question of Pakistan.

Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have deteriorated and descended into a state of low-grade warfare along the border. Much of this is connected to the Taliban movement within Pakistan itself. The history is long and goes back to the late 1980's, when (ironically) the Taliban got its start among the Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Pakistani intelligence (ISI) sponsored madrassas (Islamic schools) among the refugees desiring to build a paramilitary and political force that could enter Afghanistan and pacify the civil war which erupted after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. And it worked, with the Taliban defeating the various mujahideen warlords and taking over the country by 1996 - only to be ousted by the Americans in the fall of 2001.

Over the next twenty years the Taliban engaged in guerilla warfare against the Americans who in utter frustration abandoned the country in 2021. During that time there were various offshoots and parallel groups which arose. Some like the Haqqani Network operate with a degree of autonomy. Former enemies like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar eventually joined with the Taliban, and then there's the Pakistani Taliban which arose in the 2000's, and while it works with the Afghan Taliban, they are separate entities with different leaderships. And to make matters even more complicated, the Pakistani Taliban has its offshoots - and all along the line there are defectors that have left to join various branches of ISIS, embracing its particular brand of apocalyptic Salafism.

The Afghan leadership knows that Islamabad and Beijing retain close and historically rooted ties and thus there is bound to be a wariness when it comes to trusting Beijing.

Just as with the Central Asian nations to the north of Afghanistan, the EU finds itself uniquely positioned to do business. While the EU constitutes liberal Western government, the style of Brussels diplomacy is a bit different than that of Washington and as such it can prove an attractive option.

Given the rapprochement between Brussels and the former Soviet states of Central Asia, I was not at all surprised to see a dialogue starting to develop between the EU and the Taliban. It will be challenging to be sure, but if EU investors believe there is sufficient stability, they will want to invest as Afghanistan sits atop vast reserves of mineral wealth. At that point, it will also be in Europe's interest to help mediate between Kabul and Islamabad and bring an end to the border conflict. The EU for its part is also looking to deport immigrants and would probably be willing to work with the Taliban in order to block migrants - but given the porous nature of the Afghan border this seems hardly realistic. The most likely trail leads across Iran to the Caucasus and Türkiye.

These proposed talks have opened up the floodgates when it comes to humanitarian criticism. I'm certain this is a 'testing the waters' moment and as such the EU is downplaying any expectations and denying the possibility of investment or some kind of bilateral relations. If the EU can get past this hurdle, then they'll proceed to the next and so forth. You're not going to see Taliban delegates shaking hands with European leaders any time soon. While Türkiye is not an EU-member state, it play a critical role as the middle-man between European and Afghan interests and as a broker, Ankara can also benefit - something I'm sure Erdogan is keen to do. He also has an interest in reducing migration as many Afghan refugees arrive in or pass through his country.

This will be an ongoing story and one to watch.

See also:

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2019/12/movement-and-summits-in-central-asia-eu.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/1969/12/kyrgyzstan-russian-sanctions-and.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-multifaceted-and-dynamic.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2023/08/the-now-less-than-great-game-extending.html