Movement and Summits in Central Asia: The EU Alternative

https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/central-asia-leaders-meet-again-in-sign-of-increased-regional-cooperation/

These recent summits mark a change in the global order and perhaps for the first time since 1991 the Central Asian nations are demonstrating a serious willingness to cooperate and perhaps even a desire to function with a degree of autonomy. At last after almost thirty years it would seem that (some of them at least) have realised this goal might actually be workable if they agree to function as a bloc.

There is great uncertainty with regard to the US and the stability of Washington affects the ability of other nations to project into the region. Some will wane in their influence as they will be unwilling to autonomously provoke powers such as Russia and China. And of course the latter will feel emboldened. And yet the nations of Central Asia are caught in a dangerous game and the one power I think they don't want to overly antagonise is the United States. China and Russia might promote instability. The US is known for finding excuses to drop bombs and also has a long record of utilising Salafi militants to fight its proxy wars.

Another alternative relationship is coming to the fore, one that's always hovered in the background... namely, the European Union. In the past their access was more or less limited by Washington's cooperation. They couldn't step on toes. But that seems to be changing as Donald Tusk's recent visit and the EU sponsored summit indicates.

It raises an interesting possibility for both the EU and the nations of Central Asia. For the Asians, the relationship has the possibility to grant them a strong backing power that might irritate Washington but cannot anger them in the way a move toward Beijing or Moscow might. And while these nations need to deal on an ongoing basis with Russia and China and certainly these nations are in their immediate neighbourhood, they fear becoming mere satellites of any great power. Thus for many years they have tried to play off the powers against each other and maintain a degree of balance and autonomy. And yet their own divisions have often prevented this and given a door of access to powers that would manipulate the politics of the region.

But of course bringing the EU into the theatre just ups the ante. With increased stakes there's increased danger and creates a situation that continues to grow ever more complicated. Intellectuals within the Atlantic Establishment might embrace this move. While EU trade deals and initiatives won't directly help Wall Street, they do have the potential to help NATO. Increased investment will increase 'interests' and the nations of Europe will be more willing to invest military spending in the region. These are euphemisms for militarism but Washington would certainly rather see the Germans, Brits, Italians and even the French in the region before they would see the Chinese or more Russians.

The leaders of Central Asia are not idle. The old guard is in the process of dying off and changing. The old Communist leaders who took over in 1991 are passing the baton and the new leadership realises that some changes are needed. There is clearly a fear of a larger conflict which makes me wonder about their appeal to the EU. These nations, the so-called 'Stans' seem to be maneuvering for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Why? It's not exactly their sphere.

I think it suggests fear of a larger conflict and if they could help facilitate the pacification of that situation, an EU invite into the region seems a safer move and one less provocative vis-à-vis Moscow.

Trump's unilateralist approach has certainly weakened US power in regions like Central Asia and yet the leaders realise they can't allow a vacuum to develop. The EU seems like a potentially safe move. In another decade the geopolitical equations of Eurasia may prove to be quite different.

History should always be our guide and yet in some respects the region defies historical precedent. These nations did not exist before 1991. The Soviet Republics were created by Stalin and done so with the intent to divide and conquer. There are still bitter disputes that are deeply tied to history. For example the great trade depots, the cities of Silk Road legend were largely dominated by the Persian Tajiks and yet today most of those cities are in Turkic Uzbekistan. A type of Schengen-zone would eliminate the difficulties and has the potential to alleviate some tensions but we're a long way from a Central Asia Union.

It will be interesting to follow and of course there is a small but vibrant Bible-believing Christian population in the region. They are for the most part reduced to underground existence though the persecution is best described as low-grade. Whatever the geopolitical course we hope they will find some relief and an opportunity to worship without fear.