Meloni's Brothers of Italy (FdI) came to power in 2022 primarily because it was the party that refused to be part of Mario Draghi's Unity Government. This was also undoubtedly connected to some of the public anger over Covid and continued immigration.
It's one thing to campaign and play the demagogue, it's something else to govern. Meloni has triangulated many positions and while she has increased her stature in Brussels and empowered Italy vis-à-vis the EU, she has also angered many of her more ideologically committed supporters back at home.
In order to form a government, Meloni brought in members of the Right-wing Lega party (led by Matteo Salvini) and Silvio Berlusconi's Centre-Right Forza Italia (FI). While there is some overlap, there is not agreement on all issues. Salvini is in many ways a rival, and Berlusconi (who died in 2023) more or less despised Meloni. I'm sure there were a lot of backroom negotiations - stories of quid pro quo that will emerge over time.
And this is connected to the present scandal - the pardon of Nicole Minetti who played a part in Berlusconi's sordid and degenerate party scene. Meloni undoubtedly cut deals and made promises and now she's having to deal with some damage control - and without Berlusconi around to take any of the heat.
To the surprise of everyone, Meloni's government has proven to be the most stable in decades and she may actually make it to the end of her term without having to call for early elections. Her enemies (which includes some within her coalition) are frustrated and looking for occasions to smear her character and break her political grip.
Meloni is still solidly in power but she's starting to suffer some setbacks (such as the failure of the judicial referendum she sponsored in early 2026) and now this scandal as well. Further the article mentions the controversy surrounding the release of Libyan general Almasri, which in turn is connected to the larger (and largely obscured) geopolitics surrounding Libya and the fallout of the 2011 NATO overthrow of Gaddafi and subsequent civil war. The country remains partitioned with competing geopolitical blocs attempting to secure energy resources and the like.
Meloni for her part has curried considerable favour among American Evangelicals and the Right in particular. But so has Lega's Matteo Salvini, and one wonders if tensions won't arise at some point - if they're not already in play. At one point she was a favourite of Trump and yet the relationship has notably cooled a bit in light of Meloni's refusal to back Trump on Iran. The spat with the pope hasn't helped either as Meloni took Leo's side. Trump has threatened to pull troops from Italy, which would actually thrill large sections of the Italian public but do little for Meloni.
The whole Minetti episode reeks of corruption and thus the Five Star Movement (M5S) which has been in decline in recent years will seek to capitalize on it and revive its standing (and anti-corruption bona fides) in Italian politics. This scandal is just the sort of thing that led to their initial wave of support which seemed to peek in the late 2010's.
The general election must be held before the end of 2027 and while many are frustrated with Meloni, I don't doubt that many Italians appreciate the stability she has brought - and that may prove decisive. Her opponents will be trying to upset her ability to make that claim and given Italian relations with the EU, NATO, the United States, France, Türkiye, China, and Ukraine/Russia - there are a lot factors in play and opportunities for both success and scandal.
See also:
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2025/03/meloni-and-judges.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2025/06/meloni-and-msi.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2023/02/lukoil-and-italy.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-italian-debate-over-bri.html
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