Lukoil and Italy

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/russias-lukoil-reaches-deal-to-sell-italian-refinery/

It's surprising to me that this transaction wouldn't be considered in violation of sanctions as it is effectively a business transaction with a Russian company. Lukoil may not be directly targeted but the spectrum of sanctions is sweeping enough that I'm sure regulatory officials and prosecutors could make a case to block this sale if they wanted to.

As the article indicates the practice thus far in light of The Ukraine War has been the seizure of assets – Europeans and Americans seizing Russian assets, and Moscow seizing Western assets within its own borders.

But in this case there's an actual transaction going on. The Russian company is willing to sell and abandon the Italian market but it's being done in a humane and equitable manner. By facilitating this sale, is this a case of the Meloni government going against the EU grain? No one is saying. Meloni and her right-wing coalition are ostensibly on board with the war agenda, but this tact is more reminiscent of what we might see with someone like Viktor Orban.

It was comical to note that just a couple of weeks ago Berlusconi came out strongly condemning Zelenskiy and his government and blaming them at least in part for the war. Meloni at the time was down with the flu and was probably seething that her coalition partner would make a public statement like that – and she being sick couldn't properly respond. I noted that as soon as she was well she jetted off to a meeting and press conference with Zelenskiy to make sure the EU/NATO leadership was clear as to her government's position. But while Meloni is officially on board, her government continues to pursue its own subtle path of independence.

With regard to the Lukoil deal, is this a price Brussels and Washington are willing to pay – remain silent in order to keep Meloni in their good graces? For Italy, this (shall we say) more decent treatment of Russia may be a calculated one – a move that's thinking way ahead, past these days of trouble. Someday the fighting will stop and someday the West will do business with Russia. In light of these moves, whoever is in charge in Moscow will likely look to Italy before they would consider say, Berlin.

Lukoil owns other refineries in the Balkans and a lot of petrol stations. As the war progresses, it will be interesting to see if this company is allowed to continue operating in Europe and how this will play out in terms of the corporation's relationship to Moscow. Putin of course wants access to Western markets and yet the longer the war goes on the more complicated this becomes and at some point the West may 'flip the switch' and seize Lukoil assets – which would certainly lead to some form of retaliation by Moscow.