First, many thought that there would be an attempt to impeach
Obama. If it was going to happen it was going to be in 2015 after the
Republicans scored their 2014 mid-term victories.
But it didn't. Why?
There will be divergent opinions on this matter but I think
the primary reason is the dissent within the Republican Party itself. The
Tea-Party's various manifestations have divided the party. They don't want a
repeat of 1999 when they failed to impeach Clinton in the Senate. He came out
stronger in the end. Gingrich had been ousted and Clinton went out on top with
a lot of popular approval. Gore should have been easily defeated. Instead he
probably won the election, even by the asinine Electoral College standards.
Only the Supreme Court and in particular Sandra Day O'Connor saved Bush in the
end.
If the GOP went after Obama and it fell apart, they would
look bad and they rightly fear a backlash. I do think if they thought they
could have successfully impeached him they would have done it. But the cost of
failure is too high. At this point Obama being in office is much more convenient
for the 2016 campaign. It would seem that Obama will finish his term. Their
real target at this point is Hillary Clinton.
Second, many people expected Ruth Bader-Ginsburg to retire.
She's 82 years old and while hardly flagging it's not realistic to expect her
to have many more years on the bench. A recent widow she's very devoted to her
work and I'm sure she's keenly observed how regretful Sandra Day O'Connor has
been after her retirement. Ginsburg obviously loves her job and wants to stay.
But with O'Connor's retirement, the court shifted to the
Right. Her eventual replacement was Samuel Alito. If Ginsburg had retired in
2015, Obama could replace her and try to maintain the current balance. She
could still potentially retire in 2016 but a nomination during the height of
the election season is unadvisable. Everyone will be grandstanding and trying
to score points. It would be more ugly than usual and Obama would certainly end
up having to put in someone a little more toward the Right in order to get them
through. Remember at this point the Republicans control the congress. It is
also noteworthy that Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz are on the judiciary committee.
Many thought she would retire, not because she wanted to, but
because it was the time to do it in order to maintain the balance on the court.
Of course if Hillary Clinton wins then she can retire
sometime in 2017-2019.
But if Clinton loses and the Republicans take over the White
House she might have to wait until 2021 when a Democrat might take office or 2025 when the same Republican would finish a
second term. At that point the woman would be well into her nineties.
Not a few people are irritated with her and view her
intransigence as self-serving and potentially quite harmful. Her zeal to serve may in the end promote the undoing
of her legacy. I must say in the reading I've done on the Supreme Court, not a
few of these people develop a sort of megalomania. The power they wield is not
overt but they view themselves as the caretakers of society or something to
that effect. Due to the nature of the
Supreme Court their views of jurisprudence take on a different hue that can at
times be quite offensive.
We'll see what happens in 2016 but the decisions of
Bader-Ginsburg and Breyer may in the end provide the basis for a tremendous
Republican victory and a complete re-shaping of the court. Kennedy is no
youngster either. As the court's swing vote his replacement and effect on the
balance of the court could be profound.
I cannot imagine the level of social polarity that will
develop should such a pendulum swing occur. If the Republicans take the White
House for one or two terms, there are potentially vast implications for the
Supreme Court and the culture war being waged by the Christian Right. The
lawsuits will come on at an accelerated rate and personally I would expect
social violence to develop. American society is already feeling it. It will get
worse.
