07 June 2018

Atlantic Breakdown in Slow Motion


Even though the EU and China have their own differences the actions of the United States are forcing both entities to look outward. Trump continues to antagonise Europe, driving them toward the pursuit of their own economic, diplomatic and military agendas.


The pending British withdrawal has weakened the EU but in some ways it is Britain that stands to lose the most. Trump has tried to woo France through his buddy sessions with Macron and his administration has sought to strengthen ties with the EU's Russian periphery.
The Brussels ascendancy and Berlin continue to express alarm and anger at his policies and philosophically there is some turmoil within the EU/NATO structure. As mentioned in the linked piece below there are a variety of outlooks, factions and sub-factions and what was once theoretical wishful thinking is now becoming implementable reality.
Obviously this is an ongoing and very active story. The pending G7 Summit will be interesting to watch. The Trump approach seems to lay the greatest pressure on the Empire's stress points. Looking back some will mark Trump's tenure as the beginning of the end.... or it may lay the groundwork for future war... and while there are other possible scenarios the two presented here (End of Empire and War) are not mutually exclusive.
Additionally Trump's destruction of the Iranian deal spells financial disaster for Europe. US media has focused mainly on whether or not the Iranians have violated the terms of the treaty. The administration and its Evangelical allies have been tag-teaming with Likud and yet one grows weary of Israeli accusations. At this point I'm not sure why anyone would listen to anything Netanyahu has to say. But for Europe it's more practical. In the wake of the 2015 deal their firms signed massive contracts with Tehran for oil and other trade and now it's all in jeopardy. This is one of Washington's means of power that aggravates and even angers its allies. At this juncture 'satraps' as opposed to 'allies' is truly more appropriate because these nations cannot express autonomy in their policies. If their companies do business in the US financial system which they most certainly do, Washington claims legal jurisdiction and will go after them if they violate American policies. The US can largely ignore laws in other countries. They can scream and file lawsuits against Washington in international court but everyone knows that very little can be done and the US can extract revenge a hundred and one ways.
At this point the United States has been, at least since the second Obama term in a state of low-grade war vis-à-vis Russia. The Pentagon's latest doctrinal statements have all but made it official. Part of a long-term project, its implementation was for many years done in trickles but now there's a full-scale campaign.
As mentioned previously, Europe is caught in the middle and a war between Moscow and Washington means certain devastation for the nations of the EU. This is why some of the EU leadership is beginning to move. Other Deep State figures like George Soros are trying a different approach and are desperate to save Atlanticism and reverse Brexit.
Of course for Putin, he'd be foolish not to act. Things are afoot, especially in Southeastern Europe and the Balkans. His best bet for Russian security is the destruction of Atlanticism and even better, a fragmented EU. The former is a long shot, but the latter may help Moscow by putting stress on the periphery allowing Moscow to re-establish its desired buffer. Putin is scheming and yet others are doing much of the work for him. EU and NATO doctrine and their combined actions in the Balkans have driven not a few back in the direction of their historic friend and ally Moscow.
Beijing does not want a military confrontation with Washington but at this point they most certainly believe the United States is itching for a fight. Who would have ever guessed that the US would try to 'flip' North Korea, but that's what's being attempted. It's a long-shot and I don't think Beijing will let it happen. In the meantime they're looking for friends and a means of strengthening the OBOR project. If Trump wants to antagonise Europe, that's fine, the Chinese will certainly move and try to ingratiate themselves with Brussels.
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