10 June 2018

Geopolitics and the Petroleum Markets


Geopolitics affects prices. Who can dispute it? But rarely are the consequences so blatant.


The crushing of Venezuela serves US interests in Latin America but the degradation of their oil sector will additionally help North American production. The US and Canadian systems are diverse but much of it rests on high-cost extraction methods. The price of oil has to be up for it to be profitable.
Venezuela and Iran being somewhat knocked out of the picture helps Washington on multiple fronts... and some of its allies.
The Saudis who are in a proxy war with Iran will also benefit from rising prices.
Of course some in Washington will be less happy as Russia also stands to gain.
It's a tug-of-war and everyone is gaming against everyone else and yet I know that some in power are particularly gleeful when the economics and the geopolitics gel nicely... as they do here.
Even the strategists, spooks and schemers like to line their pockets. And if they speculated and played around in the futures market, knowing full well what was coming, they can make a fortune and they can do it with impunity.

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