This caught my eye recently. It's a minor story but one that
helps to place the context of the accusations that for years Chechen rebels
have found haven in Eastern Georgia.
In the 1990's Tbilisi shifted into the American orbit and yet
the West missed its chance to bring Georgia into NATO. The risk is not to
Georgia but to NATO. Are the member states of the alliance willing to enter into
an Article 5 relationship with Tbilisi? In other words are they willing to risk
war with Moscow in order to protect a small Caucasian republic at the back door
of Europe? While Georgia shares a border with NATO member (and once EU
aspirant) Turkey, does Brussels want to enforce a hard border in the Middle
East? Turkey was viewed as critical and thus for NATO the answer was yes. For
the EU, thus far the answer has been no.
But try as some might, Georgia cannot be equated with Turkey.
Yes, it has a Black Sea coast and sits at Russia's southern frontier but Turkey
straddles Europe and Asia and controls the very passageway into and out of the
Black Sea. For NATO this was (and is) pure gold and for Moscow it has
historically been a thorn in its side.
I think some like John McCain wanted to see Georgia and
perhaps even eventually Azerbaijan fall fully under US sway. At that point an
isolated Armenia could perhaps be won over but the West didn't complete the
project before Russia began its process of revivification under Putin.
Another part of this story is with regard to the number of
Chechens in places like Turkey, Jordan and yes, Syria. Their presence in these
places is not something recent. The Chechens have long been exiles and there's
a sizable diaspora and over the past twenty-five years there's also been a
trend toward Salafism.
Georgia's break with Syria is obviously due to Assad's
relationship with Moscow... Tbilisi's sworn enemy. Georgia is an obvious proxy
or funnel for funds and weapons into the Chechen community... in the direction
of Syria and from Syria back through Georgia and into the Russian Federation
via Chechnya.
This story continues to fascinate and I think only a small
portion of it has been told.
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