09 June 2018

Georgia's Interest in Chechnya


This caught my eye recently. It's a minor story but one that helps to place the context of the accusations that for years Chechen rebels have found haven in Eastern Georgia.


In the 1990's Tbilisi shifted into the American orbit and yet the West missed its chance to bring Georgia into NATO. The risk is not to Georgia but to NATO. Are the member states of the alliance willing to enter into an Article 5 relationship with Tbilisi? In other words are they willing to risk war with Moscow in order to protect a small Caucasian republic at the back door of Europe? While Georgia shares a border with NATO member (and once EU aspirant) Turkey, does Brussels want to enforce a hard border in the Middle East? Turkey was viewed as critical and thus for NATO the answer was yes. For the EU, thus far the answer has been no.
But try as some might, Georgia cannot be equated with Turkey. Yes, it has a Black Sea coast and sits at Russia's southern frontier but Turkey straddles Europe and Asia and controls the very passageway into and out of the Black Sea. For NATO this was (and is) pure gold and for Moscow it has historically been a thorn in its side.
I think some like John McCain wanted to see Georgia and perhaps even eventually Azerbaijan fall fully under US sway. At that point an isolated Armenia could perhaps be won over but the West didn't complete the project before Russia began its process of revivification under Putin.
Another part of this story is with regard to the number of Chechens in places like Turkey, Jordan and yes, Syria. Their presence in these places is not something recent. The Chechens have long been exiles and there's a sizable diaspora and over the past twenty-five years there's also been a trend toward Salafism.
Georgia's break with Syria is obviously due to Assad's relationship with Moscow... Tbilisi's sworn enemy. Georgia is an obvious proxy or funnel for funds and weapons into the Chechen community... in the direction of Syria and from Syria back through Georgia and into the Russian Federation via Chechnya.
This story continues to fascinate and I think only a small portion of it has been told.

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