The Guaido Collapse and Perceptions of American Power

Juan Guaido's attempted overthrow of the Maduro government is rapidly losing steam. His May 2019 overreach has taken the wind out of his sails and left him looking weak and vulnerable. There's little doubt that the forces in Washington that backed him and both disappointed and even angry.

The US appears weak and indeed a case can be made for growing US weakness on the international stage. Its plots and ploys are failing in many places as the US seems unable to effectively execute its plans.

Why is this? A long list could be made. The Internet Age plays a part but in other aspects this has facilitated US machinations. I also don't buy that the US is really that weak but in our cyber-age the wheels have to progress carefully. In reality the US has scored some stunning imperial victories since 9/11. Despite its setbacks in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua the American Empire's reversal of the 'Pink Tide' opposition in Latin America has been both relatively quick and effective.

Additionally one has to reckon with whether or not instability is in itself a desideratum in certain instances. I contend that in the Middle East the chaos is actually part of the strategy.

But the struggles in places like Venezuela, Turkey, Sri Lanka and in terms of the global economy are real. I reject the theatre narratives posited by some theorists. And while I do believe there are conspiracies and even grand (and often quite open) conspiracies I don't believe that everything is orchestrated to a 'tee' by the power elite. I believe there are factions and that the struggles are real... even deadly.

There are aspects of the world system that are orchestrated but it's not a mere show. The outward shell, the official political and bureaucratic forms and institutions often have a veneer to them and the media is always there to provide spin but there are legitimate and broiling struggles taking place behind the official curtain.

The US struggle with China is real and it's dangerous. It's complicated and difficult to understand but a big part of the conflict concerns US economic dominance of the global financial system. This has been cast into doubt since 2008 and this was largely concurrent with China's ascent to the second largest economy in the world.... behind only the United States.

While our media makes much of the Trump economy, the truth is there are indicators suggesting the US economy is weak and many have believed for some time that it is poised for another significant setback. This plays a role in how US power operates around the globe and as nations like China are starting to challenge US dominance of the global economic system, there are also challengers to US diplomatic might. The Pentagon still reigns supreme on the world stage and everyone is cautious in that regard but the question is... what will another big war do to the US economy?

The truth is the Iraq-Afghanistan Wars have not really been reckoned with as of yet. The economic tidal wave is coming. They've done all they can to defer it but it's coming nevertheless. Some may argue that 2008 was in part an aspect of that. I think a stronger case could be made that 2008 was the harvest of policies which were initiated in the 1990's under Greenspan and Clinton. Vietnam dealt the US a harsh economic blow from mid-1970's into the 1980's and some of the lessons were learned in terms of safety valves and safeguards. The economy is quite different today but this complicated field plays no small part in the global struggle and how US power is perceived and maintained.

In the end Guaido is a blip on the screen, a flash in the pan. He's nothing. However, his failure sends a signal to the wider world and not just to America's adversaries. Its allies and erstwhile allies are also watching... and waiting. For decades they have been dominated by the United States and the clock is ticking, the hour is coming in which they can finally break away. Will the US let them go, or will it sponsor new Juan Guaido's in their countries too?

What I'm sure nations like Germany, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada and maybe even Britain hope for is that when that hour comes, the US will be too weak to pursue them.