European Drama: Aachen versus Brussels?

https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/france-halts-eu-enlargement/

France has halted the process to enlarge the EU even as Balkan states form what amount to a 'Mini-Schengen' zone of custom free borders.

This can be read as an attempt by Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia to demonstrate their earnest desire to join the EU. Or, it can also be viewed as an attempt to form a V4-style bloc by states that are falling between the cracks... outside the EU or at least on its fringes. While Albania is part of NATO and North Macedonia aspires to be, there is little chance of Serbia joining the organisation. These nations are small and if they hope to have any influence and solve their overlapping internal tensions, they would hope that such a collaborative move will grant them status and a voice in both the Balkans and in the larger questions of Europe.

Some might see this as a move fostered by Washington in order to 'woo' Serbia and even the naysayers within North Macedonia into the Atlantic orbit.

And yet Macron has played the spoiler in arguing that the EU should not continue to expand at present. The Macedonia name settlement was supposedly going to open the door to Skopje but France has blocked the move.

On the one hand the EU plan has always been to incorporate all of Europe. Of course since Europe is ill-defined this project has always faced difficulties. Is Ukraine in Europe? What about Russia? Turkey? Part of Turkey is geographically in Europe but is it really a European nation? What about the Caucasus? And every question of this nature when put in the context of NATO is haunted by the spectre of Article 5, the mutual defense obligation.

Are the Germans and French going to go to war for Turkey? For Georgia?

The basic plan in the aftermath of the Cold War was to consolidate control of Europe and then ensure that a resurgent Russia would never be able to reconsolidate the Eastern Bloc or reconstitute the Warsaw Pact.

The plan almost succeeded but Serbia remained defiant even after its defeats in the 1990's. The situation simmered and while Belgrade is today governed by a mostly Western friendly regime its politics are still haunted by the NATO wars and the old alliance with Moscow. The 2010's have proven to be an unhappy decade for the EU. The ongoing effects of the economic crisis, immigration and resurgent nationalism have weakened Brussels and growing numbers in Eastern Europe are turning once more to Moscow... not on the basis of the Warsaw Pact or Stalinism, but on the basis of Anti-Liberalism.

The recent signing of the Aachen Treaty by Germany and France continues to spark discussion. Is this a sign of NATO's weakness, of America's lack of commitment? Or is this something bigger, a harbinger of not only NATO's dysfunction but a sign of trouble in the EU.

Some could argue it's a power move on the part of Paris and Berlin, the creation of a hierarchy, an EU within the EU... something that was able to form as a result of Brexit and the loss of British influence. A corruption of the EU's principles, it's viewed as a power grab by some. That's one way to look at it.

Or it could be seen as a preparatory even prudent defensive move, anticipating both the downgrade of the EU and the potential collapse of NATO. France and Germany, the two most powerful nations on the continent are looking ahead and making sure they're not caught unawares.

If France's policy is viewed in light of Aachen, then it could be understood as a call to batten down the hatches, don't open up more doors of Russian infiltration and don't create potential hot spots.

North Macedonia is indeed a venue that someone like Putin (or someone else) could utilise to make trouble. There are tensions between Slavs and Albanians, between North Macedonia and NATO members Greece and Bulgaria. North Macedonia could also be utilised in the quest to wrest Serbia away from the Atlantic orbit.

Additionally such non-EU, non-NATO states could function as a buffer between the EU and potentially hostile powers such as Turkey and Russia. France in particular has always been hostile to Turkey and to Ankara's attempts to join the EU.

But will this move foment a divide? There will be some in the EU leadership that won't like this approach and will see it as a short-sighted move harming the EU's status and mission. The story is far from over.