Hungary, the UK and the Politics of Huawei

https://www.euractiv.com/section/5g/news/hungarys-emergency-infrastructure-hardware-built-by-huawei/

Washington is not pleased that Budapest is collaborating with Beijing when it comes to its 5G infrastructure. This is part of a larger struggle with China over technology and global 'tech' infrastructure. Despite US machinations and even threats, China continues to make inroads into Europe.

Matteo Salvini's Lega dominated coalition government seemed eager to invite China into Italy under the auspices of OBOR. Salvini is now in the opposition, his power bid having failed and thus the project is in question. I'm sure not a few in both Washington and Brussels rejoiced to see him blunder and might have played a behind-the-scenes role in making sure it would happen.

Returning to Hungary, Viktor Orban has frustrated and angered the power brokers in Brussels, which has made him some friends in Washington and yet not all of Orban's moves are in keeping with the American agenda or even the aspirations of all his V4 allies, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia.

I think perhaps the greatest irony in the coverage is the fact that the Snowden revelations are repeatedly ignored. Does Huawei install backdoors? Maybe, even probably. But we know the US does this. We know the US government has aggressive programmes to tap into and seize all data.

I'm sure Orban knows this too and thus while he's willing to cozy up to Washington in order to maintain his position vis-à-vis Brussels, he is nevertheless unwilling to play the satrap and bow to Washington's demands. By cutting deals with companies like Huawei he can play the two adversaries (Beijing and Washington) against each other and maintain a degree of autonomy. Poland on the other hand has completely acquiesced to the United States on this point and given Warsaw's increasingly acrimonious relationship with Brussels, they are coming to heavily rely on Washington's backing.

From the standpoint of the Washington power-brokers it's nations like Poland and fellow V4 members Czech Republic and Slovakia that are being looked to as replacements for the now largely irrelevant UK. Long a proxy for US interests in Continental politics, the British departure from the EU has left the US scrambling for 'deep' allies and tools to work within the EU apparatus. The V4 is an obvious choice but Orban in particular seems determined to carve a semi-independent course.

There are other options. Romania is eager to submit to US domination and yet the country is wracked by political instability and corruption. Albania is functionally a US asset within Europe but the tiny nation has little clout in the corridors of power.

Even Britain which in light of Brexit is more dependent than ever on the US relationship seeks to hold on to threads of autonomy by cutting side deals with Huawei and other non-US dominated actors. And yet such autonomy can only go so far. If the US perceives a threat and the Five Eyes Anglo-American network (UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) is in doubt, it is certain the UK will quickly acquiesce. A failure to do so would reduce the UK to the status of Spain or another second tier power. With the loss of Britain's special or spoiler role within the EU, the UK's uniqueness (or point of leverage) has been reduced to its banking sector, its alliance with America and its seat on the UN Security Council. It is not going to put any of these in jeopardy.

Hungary on the other hand possesses far less and thus has little to lose. Orban is willing to roll the dice and maybe if Washington comes along and makes an offer, he might be willing to send Huawei packing. This may be what he's counting on. Time will tell.