Covid-19: Economic Downturn and its Potential Geopolitical Consequences

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-jordan-economy-year-over-for-us

I tagged this article at the end of March when it came out and just a couple of weeks later it almost seems like non-news. Why? Because it's the news everywhere. Virtually every economy has been affected by Covid-19 shutdowns and quarantines and is ailing as a result. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is not unique.

However, some situations are more noteworthy than others. The US retail sector was already ailing and many believe (with good reason) that large sections of it will not be able to 'bounce' back and recover. As I've said elsewhere I don't believe for a moment that the US economy was 'strong' or 'robust' let alone anything like the claims made by Trump or even by his predecessor. It was a cobbled-together shell game and its statistics were rooted in lies which hide the exploitation of increasingly desperate and broken workers, the weakness of the disappearing middle and working classes, and its realities were further obfuscated in the alchemy of the stock market. Some were profiting very nicely but that doesn't mean the economy as a whole was healthy. Those at the bottom are being crushed, their lives and families are in ruins.

But that's the United States and while its recovery will be ugly and things aren't going to return to being as they were, I doubt very much that this nation will collapse. That reality while now visible on the distant horizon is likely a long way off.

But we should watch or at least consider the status of other nations. I've written about the Right-wing parties in Europe and how they will use (and indeed are already using) Covid-19 as a means to reassert themselves. That's another angle we should give some attention to.

And then there's the story of Africa and the developing world. No one knows what direction that story is going to take when it comes to Coronavirus. Are they going to dodge the pandemic? If so, why? Why has Eastern Europe largely been able to dodge the bullet? I still insist that for all the talk of 'science' and fact-based reporting there are still some fundamental questions surrounding the virus and its transmission that remain open questions. I'm not suggesting a hoax, not at all. Rather, I'm suggesting that we retain a healthy scepticism even while acknowledging the reality of the pandemic and its seriousness.

I know many Germans would look at Italy and give a knowing nod... to them Italy is a land of chaos and sloppy inefficient bureaucracy and it's certainly not as clean and tidy as Germany, let alone Switzerland or Scandinavia. But even that somewhat spurious argument runs into trouble.

The virus hit hardest in Northern Italy, not in the South. Northern Italy is closer to Central Europe in its culture. The people in the South refer to the Northerners as 'Germans', which is not meant kindly. The South is more impoverished and certainly more chaotic and yet it was the North that got really hit by Covid-19. Of course the tourist traffic is heaviest in North. I wonder if there's something to the concentration of the virus (a point some are considering) and this may have doomed Northern Italy even while it helped the less-than-touristy locales of Eastern Europe evade some of the effects. I just don't know but the whole fallout and progression of this virus is strange, a fact being used by some to dismiss the whole thing. They pull out their numbers and explanations but they cannot account for the overrun morgues and funeral homes in the hotspots, let alone the accounts given by health-workers. Clearly this is not just a manifestation of the annual flu.

And yet the doubters are right to fear the way some in power are exploiting these events. There's a story there to be sure and one that will not only affect global economies but all of our lives in the days to come.

By the way these comments were not meant to insult Italy or Eastern Europe. I thoroughly enjoyed what I saw of both places and actually preferred them over Germany. Northern Italy is a place I still dream about and if I had my preference I would relocate there permanently. And what I saw of Eastern Europe astounded me, an absolute hidden gem that was erased from the Western conscience by years of Cold War.

But apart from the virus mysteries and the still uncertain areas of sickness and their consequent economic fallout, there are places like Jordan. But given that it's located in the Middle East, it must always be contextualised, for nothing will happen there that won't affect its larger neighbourhood. And what a neighbourhood! It's comprised of Israel, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Palestinian Territories. One could write extensively on the nation's history and relationships with these neighbours and how they've all interacted with each other.

The kingdom and longtime ally of the United States will continue to be propped up by Washington but its economy is already ailing and thanks to the IMF, already feeling the pain of austerity. And this is while trying to stave off civil unrest like what happened during the Arab Spring. And what will happen after Covid-19? Already remittances from Jordanians working abroad have dropped off. There's a pot that's already simmering and it won't take much for it to start boiling over.

We may find that Covid-19 wanes throughout the course of 2020 but the subsequent years of 2021 and 2022 may bring forth a truly terrible harvest. Collapsing economies and unrest will re-ignite fires that have long been smoldering. And the regional tensions have only increased since 2011, the height of the Arab Spring. The last decade has brought us chaos in Libya, the rise and fall of ISIS, the long and terrible Syrian and Yemeni Wars, the re-kindling of tensions in Iraq, an ever rightward trajectory in Israeli politics and the growth of foreign intervention. Now apart from long-term meddlers like the United States and France, the Chinese and Russians are starting to exert influence in the region, even while nations like Germany are clamouring to get involved. And then of course the Cold War between the Saudis and Tehran has only intensified over the past decade.

The neighbourhood is more dangerous than ever and with a president like Trump in the White House – we're in for interesting times and yet it's not hard to imagine how they could quickly turn terrible. And because Dispensational Eschatology still retains a pretty serious grip on Evangelical thinking, the events of the region will fuel speculations and even activism on the part of these sectors. With eagerness they will pour fuel on the fires of war and due to their erroneous understanding of how events are meant to unfold, they turn a blind and callous eye to the consequences of their actions and the suffering and death that result. We would do well to understand not only what's happening in the region but the actual teaching of Scripture for should regional tensions escalate the airwaves and pulpits will be full of lies, propaganda and dangerous heresy – on an even greater order than what is already present.

It's a time to pray, a time for wisdom, a time to watch. It's right to be concerned and yet on another level we are called to be at peace and to know these are things foretold, things promised, things which signify this age. Let us not grow callous but do our part and respond in whatever way we can.