26 April 2020

Questions Surrounding Coverage of the Saudi Nuclear Programme


After receiving some press a few years ago, the first phase of the Saudi nuclear project is (as of April 2020) nearing completion and yet many are expressing the warranted fear that the kingdom is going to pursue a weapons programme. While they have signed on to the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, the treaty increasingly has no teeth. Undermined decades ago by Israel, India, Pakistan, South Africa and in recent years by Libya, Iran and North Korea, the international community's commitment to Non-Proliferation is becoming a quaint but largely meaningless commitment.


I am of course speaking of the true international community, not in keeping with the usage in Western media which is a usually an expression of the Western nations and in the American context – of those nations which have submitted to the leadership of Washington.
The increasingly belligerent Middle Eastern Cold War which sets the Saudi allies against the Iranian bloc is fomenting this proliferation. It is noteworthy that both Iran and North Korea began to actively pursue a weapons programme in the aftermath of Bush's 2002 'Axis of Evil' speech in which Baghdad, Tehran and Pyongyang were singled out and effectively marked for regime change. Of course after Saddam Hussein fell from power in 2003, the leaders of both Iran and North Korea got the message and started to pursue the only deterrent available to them – nuclear weapons.
The United States is not opposed to Riyadh's nuclear project and numerous American companies are involved in its development. The official position would oppose the Saudi development of weapons (they may already possess some via the Pentagon, Islamabad or even Tel Aviv), and yet the United States has often facilitated or looked the other way while allies like Israel and South Africa developed or acquired said weapons. Will that be the case with Riyadh? It depends on who you talk to.
Thus far the Saudis have not agreed to IAEA inspections which is usually a 'red flag' – and yet if the United States wanted to make an issue out of it, it certainly could and Trump could put a lot of pressure on Riyadh, but so far he hasn't. How are these events to be interpreted? Does Washington not care? Is no one paying attention? Or is this being supported on a tacit level? The official Establishment explanation will either focus on nebulous talk of diplomatic arrangements or in some cases will argue the Trump State Department is negligent. And yet, given that a lot of noise could be made by the media – noise that would begin to force hands, one is left to ask the real question – why is the media being more or less silent? Given all the attention given to Iran, why is the Saudi programme and refusal of IAEA inspections remaining essentially a non-issue?
There's more to the story:
This indicates that in fact Trump and more importantly the people behind him or forces within the Establishment are steering this policy. Is the CNBC coverage a case of anti-Trump coverage? Are there voices of concern? Or is the fact that this story which should be highly significant is in fact relegated almost to the 'back page' (as it were), an indication that the big players within Washington support the policy? There have been expressions of congressional concern as the Trump administration is clearly doing this on the sly and yet given that they could be making a much bigger deal about it – I'm left to believe that most in Congress, even among Trump's enemies in fact support it. The same is true of the war in Yemen. A quick look at the IP3 membership, the company formed to facilitate US nuclear technology transfer to Saudi Arabia indicates the nature of the enterprise. It reeks of Deep State Establishment, and what's even more interesting is that IP3 was formed in June of 2016, during the sunset of the Obama Administration.
I believe the limited media coverage is a means of Establishment restraint on the Trump administration, not genuine oppositional journalism, not an attempt to seek a true expose' of the story. One could argue the US congressional posture with regard to Mohammed bin Salman and the Khashoggi affair also represents a tool of restraint, a threat, a warning to the young ruler that the American-led Western Establishment can quickly turn against him.
I'm reminded of my UPS story, when I briefly worked there in the 1990's. I've talked about their write-up policy and how three incidents meant you were terminated. Given that we handled thousands of boxes every day it was almost impossible to think that you weren't going to miss one, send one down the wrong line or load a wrong box onto a truck. Within a few weeks, I had three write-ups. I thought I would be fired but I was sent back to work and promoted. What was happening? I realised it was company insurance. They had the goods on me so to speak, if they wanted to fire me they had their justification. Clearly they didn't, but they were playing what might be called a prudent game.
Does the mainstream media work in the same way? I think it does at times – the media in this case representing and working with Establishment forces. The story is out there. Report it but don't make a big deal about it. You can't ignore it because doing so actually calls attention to your organisation and makes it look bad or corrupted. So report it, but file it away. It's still there and if they want to rekindle the controversy at a later date, they can. Rick Perry, a very unpopular Energy Secretary was involved and you can be sure there's a growing dossier on current and former figures within the Trump cabinet that can be pulled out if the time is right. Oh, and if need be the Trump people have an out. They can pin the whole thing on someone like Perry (someone unpopular) and walk away – hang him out to dry. It's one of the oldest tricks in the book.
Everyone is posturing, preparing and holding back until the right moment. Sometimes these stories die and nothing ever happens and only later when an investigative journalist digs in do we find out the real magnitude and spectrum of the events. Or in other cases the journalist digs enough to tell a big story, earn some points, game same access but then because said journalist helped cover up the sensitive issues and whitewash the narrative – he or she is then awarded with more access and better opportunities.
Finally with word that the UAE is developing a nuclear programme, there is fear of regional arms race. Again, the US established a technology transfer company under the Obama administration but thus far the relations with the UAE are above board, transparent and limited to civilian power generation.  But the situation continues to make people nervous as countries with reactors possess the means and technology to begin pursuing a weapons programme, and given the volatility of their neighbourhood they're all the more likely to do so. And as more nations possess these weapons, it's all the more likely that someone will eventually use them.

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