Geopolitical Chess: The Libyan Civil War and the Mediterranean Powder Keg

https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/nato-opens-probe-into-france-turkey-naval-incident-in-mediterranean/

France has long been the voice of opposition to the inclusion of Turkey within the European community. Under Erdogan, the Ankara government has effectively given up the proposition of EU membership and the relationship with France has only continued to grow worse.

But Turkey is still a member of NATO and yet even this status is under strain and increasing question. Turkey's movement toward Moscow has angered the NATO establishment and further tension has developed over Syria policy, refugees and increasingly issues of maritime trade. The old antagonism with Greece has also re-surfaced and while Turkey's support for the UN-recognised government in Libya is above board and proper, the US and even some European nations are unhappy with Ankara's perceived meddling – as in reality Washington, Paris and certainly Athens are at least demonstrating tacit support for the Haftar-led Tobruk government.

This clash, just like the Indo-Chinese clash in the Himalayas is part of an older dispute but one made more acute by present geopolitical stresses.

These kinds of incidents will only accelerate the Turkish departure from NATO – and it renders the alliance meaningless when member states are turning against one another, a point exacerbated by the erosion of the glue which binds the alliance, that is, American leadership. Such divisions are not unprecedented but I would argue this episode is different.

The last time we saw this level of tension between members was during   1974 when the US-backed Greek junta (in an attempt to unite Cyprus to Greece) staged a coup in Nicosia leading to the Turkish invasion and permanent partition of the island. In the years following Turkish radicalism would grow, changing and charging their political spectrum, leading to a US-backed military coup in 1980 – a move meant to stabilise the country and return it to its Kemalist secular roots.

The Greeks would oust the dictatorship of the Colonels in 1974 and commence the Third Republic. A polarised society burdened by corruption, backroom political scheming and endless scandal, the 1970's and 1980's were dominated by a push toward radical politics. Under PASOK leader Andreas Papandreou, Greece threatened to leave NATO and for a time Greece was the black sheep of the military alliance, dealing with the communist bloc and openly supporting groups like the PLO.

Greece and Turkey would once again almost come to blows in 1987 over a drilling dispute in the Aegean and in 1996 over sovereignty of some small islands but in both these cases (and others) war was averted. Through all of this period, the US asserted itself and wielded a strong hand. Greece was a dissident state but on every critical point the leaders in Athens and Ankara backed down.

Not to demean Greece, but apart from its shipping interests, the nation has little clout on the international stage. France on the other hand is an international power, a major player within the EU and since Sarkozy's 2009 shift, France has once more become an integral part of NATO. The consequence of a conflict between Turkey and France or even between their proxies is of far greater import. And in many respects this has the potential to rekindle some of the older geopolitical alliances.

For a long time Turkey and Israel were natural allies. Their position vis-à-vis Washington and their common enemies gave them reason for friendship. Israel's doctrine of the periphery which demands Tel Aviv to seek alliance with the nations just beyond the neighbouring Arab corridor all but demands it – but the friendship with Ankara was further strengthened by Greece's friendliness to the anti-Turkish Arab nations, and anti-Israeli dissidents. Greece of course (in seeking fellow anti-Turk and anti-Israeli allies) had strong relations with the Assad regime, the Kurds (the PKK long had a base in Damascus), Egypt, Libya, Lebanon and with the Armenians who even under the Soviet Union colluded against NATO-member Turkey.

Having lost their Iranian ally in 1979, the Israelis were driven to an even closer relationship with Turkey but under Erdogan this has changed, causing some recalibration on the part of Israel. To be honest they would like to see Erdogan removed just as much as forces within the United States. And thus it's no surprise that Israel is also quietly backing Haftar against the Turkish supported regime in Tripoli. On the one hand Israel and Turkey are natural allies but Erdogan's shake-up of Turkish geopolitics has changed the region and now the destabilising factors are piling on – the Syrian and Libyan Civil Wars, the immigration crisis just to name a few. Additionally the shadow of Iran hangs over Israel and the geopolitics of the region had made for strange alliances – as Riyadh and Tel Aviv are quietly working together on the basis of a common enemy in Tehran. And yet were the regimes to change in Tehran and Ankara – everything would change once more.

The point is – the region is heating up. There are small powder kegs that are building a lot of pressure and the Libyan Civil War is in many ways turning into the focal point that's bringing the regional players together. The Libyan fire (as it were) has been burning now for almost a decade and public interest has waned and yet it has the potential to unleash a full Mediterranean crisis.

As expected, Western media coverage continues to paint Turkey as the conniving villain, ignoring the scheming and duplicity taking place on both sides. And yet in recent days, France has all but played its hand. It is openly backing Egyptian intervention into the Libyan conflict – against Turkey – the same Turkey that is receiving vocal support from Italy, which is itself interesting as Paris and Rome have been in a state of growing hostility over the past few years. Everyone's enemy is my friend or so it would seem. It's nothing new. It's a grand chess game but they're playing with people's lives.

The Salvini-Macron formula proved disastrous and though Salvini is not in power at the moment, the antagonism continues – once again, weakening both the EU and the NATO alliance. The Coronavirus situation hasn't helped as Italy which took a pounding from the pandemic has sought financial aid from Brussels and yet has been met with no small amount of reluctance from both Paris and Berlin.

The fissures within Europe are expanding and starting to play out in the larger Mediterranean theatre and into the Middle East. The vacuum created by Trump's functional abdication is exacerbating the tensions and you can be sure that Moscow and Beijing are watching closely. There are geopolitics and alliances at stake and in the case of Libya there's also oil – and the vultures are circling.

As one who is happy enough to see American power decline and NATO dissolve, I've also tried to warn that the break-up of the Atlanticist order and American Empire won't be pretty. Be careful what you wish for.

In the meantime Libya has been torn apart by nearly a decade of catastrophic invasion and internecine warfare. The 2011 NATO regime change operation destroyed Libyan society and has sent shockwaves across both the Mediterranean, North Africa and down into the Sahara and Sahel regions. It has produced monsters and poured fuel on already burning fires – and they don't appear to be anywhere near being put out.

And many innocents are caught in the middle, including many believers in Christ. They too fall prey to the games beasts and would-be beasts are wont to play.

See also:

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-libyan-proxy-war-ankara-and-athens.html