Poland's Militarisation and Serbia's Pivot

https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2020/06/22/Poland-calls-for-more-US-troops-aircraft-as-Trump-Duda-set-to-meet/4281592847135/

Poland is actively seeking to militarise their country, fully embracing the role as a NATO front-line state. The right-wing PiS government has requested America troops and armaments and you can be sure they'll get them. They have a lot of support from the American Right and growing support from the Christian Right as not a few intellectuals see their Christian Democracy as something to be admired.

Of course for Europe (specifically the EU) the PiS (the Polish Law and Justice Party) is a thorn in their side, a dissident state that is flouting convention and creating a crisis for Brussels. The PiS is exhibiting anti-democratic tendencies and all but dispensing with many of the conventions of Classical Liberalism – which is the point. Their thought is rooted in a nationalist expression of Catholic Social Teaching and as such is at odds with the ethos of the European Union. Nationalist, protectionist and somewhat traditionalist, the PiS is openly angling for control of the Polish courts, media and setting the stage to control the country long-term.

And Brussels has a brewing crisis on their hands with similar movements in Hungary and Italy, with similar parties moving in and out of power in places like Austria and Slovakia, and growing nationalist movements within France, Spain and of course Germany itself.

The PiS has found a friend in Trump. He has embarrassed them at times but on this occasion he's desperate for some good press and both Duda and Kaczynski stand to politically benefit from the package. And the boost comes at the right moment as Poland is engaged in elections.

Of course the militarisation of Poland represents a direct threat to Russia even while it is presented as a defensive move, a deterrent to Russian westward expansion. In actuality Moscow has no interest in expanding into the West – but it does desire a buffer between it and the EU. A neutral Poland is to be preferred but a militarised Poland hosting NATO troops and an anti-ballistic missile (ABM) battery (which contrary to Western media is not merely a defensive system) represents not just a concern but a threat.

When coupled with NATO stirrings in neighbouring Ukraine and in nations such as Georgia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus – Moscow's fears are not baseless. If the West wants trouble on its periphery its actions are like a self-fulfilling prophecy. They're pushing Putin – not to act (as they say) but to react.

The US military aid package to PiS-ruled Poland is also an insult to both Germany and the EU. Trump has suggested pulling troops out of Germany and moving them to Poland. The US has of course militarily occupied Germany since 1945 and yet troop levels have dropped drastically since the 1990's. During my unfortunate and shameful tenure in the US Air Force I was stationed in Italy and it was during that time in the mid-1990's that the Pentagon was closing bases in Germany and shifting their focus toward the Mediterranean with the spotlight being put on the Balkans and the Middle East. The Cold War was over and the process of shifting troops out of Germany was underway but Trump seems keen to take it a step further.

And now things have shifted once more – but Germany is no longer the frontline state as it was in the Cold War. Today the frontline is to the East, compromised of former Warsaw Pact nations and Soviet republics that have been gobbled up by the EU and NATO and hence the US focus is on nations like Poland, Romania, the Baltic states and if given the chance – Ukraine. 

Germany for its part has always had mixed feelings about the US troops being based on its soil. The Pentagon provides a boost for the German economy and Germany has always been at the centre of NATO's machinations within Europe. The BND, the German intelligence agency has long been wed to US Central Intelligence. This move away from Germany is on the one hand disconcerting to the German Establishment as it signals the US is not as interested in Germany as before and eventually this will play out in other sectors. On the other hand there are those within Germany that are eager for Berlin to spread its wings once more and leave the ghosts of the past behind. Germany is the functional leader of Europe and they want their nation to play a larger role to that end – which would include a more militarily robust and independent Germany that can play an international role – the way France and some of the other European nations already do.

While some find Putin's fears absurd, Russia can never afford to forget that Germany was their primary enemy in two world wars. And while at this time the Germany led by the likes of Angela Merkel seems another planet from the Germany led by Hitler – the historians tell a different tale. By no means is tomorrow going to be a repeat of 22 June 1941 but the historical forces are at work once more that (given time and the right set of circumstances) could bring about a repeat – even if on a lesser scale. Regardless, no Russian leader can sit idly by and let it happen – not after the events of 1941-1945.

And yet today, the post-war buffer is gone – this alone provokes Moscow to a more aggressive counter-strategy.

The Trump move is an insult to the EU because PiS Poland is a state of near rebellion when it comes to the authority of Brussels. The Trump administration is all but rewarding PiS which you can be sure rankles the bureaucrats in Brussels – something I'm sure Trump relishes.

In addition to specifically insulting Brussels with regard to the PiS, the Trump-weapons deal is like a billboard, an advertisement for neighbouring nations to get on board and sign on with America.

Meanwhile in Serbia, president Aleksandar Vučić has pivoted toward Moscow in refusing to concede on Kosovo – a situation that is constantly misrepresented in Western media. We're subjected to constant reports that suggest the country should have its autonomy because over 80% of the population is Kosovar Albanian and yet this ignores the fact that the Serbian minority is the original population and that historically the region was part of their heartland – the population explosion having taken place primarily (or at least extensively) under Tito and is commonly perceived as an engineered policy of divide and conquer. The Serbs are bitter about this policy (though some argue they have greatly exaggerated it) and what happened to them in the 1990's.

After sacrificing everything they're being asked to give more. Vučić's position is actually fairly moderate and will hardly assuage the fury of the Serbian hardliners and yet it is setting off alarms in the West. The timing also coincides with Kosovar president Hashim Thaçi being charged with war crimes at a special Kosovo court established in The Hague – another move made by EU forces which has undoubtedly upset some within the US, as Thaçi is a longtime asset of Washington – but a troubled one that some (perhaps) might be happy to dispense with.

Putin for his part is happy to throw any kind of wrench into EU/NATO expansion – all the more as he continues to see both Washington and Brussels push to the East. Serbia isn't on Russia's border but given that it borders Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria – there are larger reasons for Moscow's interest. Also, there's history. Serbia has always looked to Mother Russia and Moscow, broken, weak and dominated during the Yeltsin years was unable to stand by Belgrade during its struggles with NATO. Moscow is interested in righting that wrong and in returning to its historical role of Orthodox protector and champion.

The Serbia-Kosovo story isn't over but you can be sure there are forces at work angling for the ousting of Vučić. First as prime minister, now as president, Vučić has been on the scene for some time and though the West has tried to woo him, this move signals a real break.