India and China have occasionally sparred since the modern
iterations of their countries were formed in the aftermath of World War II.
Their disputes are over borders, in this case an irregular and segmented 2100
mile long frontier in the Himalaya region. The conflicts have at times broken
out into small-scale war, the worst of which took place in 1962 but as fighting
in such terrain is logistically challenging, the wars remain constrained.
The 1962 conflict was also undoubtedly a reaction on the part
of China to the Indian hosting of the exiled Dalai Lama who had finally been
forced to flee Tibet in 1959. India was not hostile to Washington and yet
relations were hardly cordial. The US worked with India on the issue of Tibet
and New Delhi allowed the CIA to run aerial missions 'over the hump' into Tibet
as they sought to insert and support Tibetan paramilitaries. This would
continue throughout the 1960's.
And yet despite this combined anti-China policy, New Delhi and
Washington didn't get along very well and this would grow into actual
antagonism during the period of Indira Gandhi's rule (1966-1997, 1980-1984).
Washington would move into a functional alliance with Pakistan which would
prove convenient in the 1970's rapprochement with Beijing and the 1980's war in
Afghanistan. India would remain non-aligned but would find the Soviet Union a
convenient source for weaponry and other goods.
But in the years after 9/11, there's been a shift in US
policy. The US still relies on Pakistan for logistical access to Afghanistan
but Islamabad and Washington have largely gone separate ways. The US has warmed
up to India, especially under the nationalist and pro-capitalist BJP government
of Narendra Modi. This has turned into a functional military alliance which has
turned India into a frontline state in terms of US posturing vis-à-vis Beijing.
Pakistan has of course remained in close partnership with
China even while the old tensions with India going back to the days of
Partition certainly remain – especially with regard to Kashmir. And north of
Kashmir proper in the regions around Ladakh and Aksai Chin, the Indian government
finds itself in conflict with China.
On the one hand these are historic disputes going back to the
1940's. On the other hand they've been amplified by the CPEC – the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, part of Beijing's larger OBOR (New Silk Road)
project. The CPEC creates a transport and energy conduit between Xinjiang and
the Pakistani port of Gwadar – something both Washington and New Delhi watch
with apprehension.
Additionally, the headwaters of some of the Indus tributaries
are in China and pass through these contested regions. While the Indus is
mostly in Pakistan some of its abundant water sources move through Indian
territory – and China has moved to construct dams which has angered New Delhi.
There are also related disputes in the East where the Brahmaputra flows (as the
Yarlung Tsangpo) out of Tibet and drops into Eastern India and joins the Ganges
delta in Bengal.
To the Chinese, the Indians are building highways in the
Himalayan regions and encroaching on their territory and putting their projects
at risk. To New Delhi the Chinese are moving to solidify their hold on these
otherwise disputed and controversial territories. The end result will be a
Chinese strategic advantage and in the case of the CPEC – an advantage for
Pakistan – India's mortal enemy.
But then consider the US factor and the US strategy with
regard to China. The incorporation of India into the plan has expanded and
enhanced the US goal to hem in China and to effectively encircle it from the standpoint
of East and South – and if Central Asia ever goes Washington's way, from the
West as well.
Modi knows he has Washington's blessing in terms of
confronting China but many analysts are alarmed as the volatility of the
region, the closer relationship between Islamabad and Beijing and of course the
powder-keg quality to the India-Pakistan relationship means that it's not hard
to imagine a regional war breaking out.
One has to wonder if the recent pseudo-scandal with regard to
Russian involvement in Afghanistan is but a move (by the American Deep State)
to sabotage the US withdrawal from the region. As things are heating up (as it
were), there are powerful elements in Washington that want the US to stay directly
involved in the larger region.
The US abandoned the Afghan project in the early 1990's after
the Soviet withdrawal. Civil War tore the country apart and to calm the chaos
the Pakistani ISI sponsored refugee talibs or students that had fled in the
1980's. The Taliban took on a life of its own and within a few years generated
headlines and Western hostility. And yet for all its terrors it did bring some
stability to the country. The US invasion in 2001 opened up a new round of war
and the society is now decimated – having endured almost four decades of
incessant war. A US withdrawal will leave the weak puppet government in Kabul
completely vulnerable and if chaos ensues, it's likely that Islamabad will move
once again to stabilise its neighbour. But this is 2020, not 1989.
If history repeats and Pakistan re-assumes its 1990's role in
Afghanistan – then you can be sure that Beijing will come in right alongside
them and that's something the US does not want to see. Aside from the
geopolitics of such a move, there is the mineral wealth of Afghanistan –
largely untapped at present. US plans have gone astray, even off the rails but
the project has not been wholly abandoned – at least not yet. If elements
within the Deep State can thwart a US withdrawal and at the same time re-kindle
the failed Russiagate scandal then it's an easy call and the media has been
quick to comply and spin the story.
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