Tajik Insurgents and Central Asian Unease

https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan-reinforces-border-militants-afghanistan-video-islamic-state/31005499.html

Radio Free Europe is a well known front for US intelligence agencies and thus its news is to be taken with a grain of salt. In many ways it seems like the growing mission of the news-site is rooted in an Anti-Moscow/Anti-Putin campaign. That said, one can also learn something from the way in which it covers stories. Additionally, even taking into account a degree of 'spin' there is nevertheless a lot of helpful and interesting information.

What struck me here is the fact that there's growing cross-border activity and mention of not just Tajik militants cooperating with Taliban forces but also increased attention being given to Chechen and Uighur militants. This always catches my eye because these groups have been repeatedly tied to Turkey and NATO handlers. They have served as proxies for US interests in the Caucasus, Syria, and Xinjiang.

The whole ISIS dynamic is also interesting in how it's playing out in the larger Eurasian theatre. In Syria they were aligned with US interests but when they destabilised Iraq, the US intervened. In Central Asia their placement vis-à-vis US interests is even more confused. In Afghanistan the US is helping the Taliban to fight them and yet in Central Asia (depending on the country) the instability they foment can prove useful. For my part I'm waiting to see if (or rather when) they turn up in Xinjiang. We already know there are growing numbers of Uighurs in their ranks so in some respects it's just a matter of time. Whether in Xinjiang itself or more likely against Chinese interests abroad they will launch attacks.

Given Dushanbe's fairly severe clampdown on Islamism there's every indication of a recent 'up-tick' in activity. The Tajik government fears Islamic extremism and their actions indicate they're worried about the border and undoubtedly about Gorno-Badakhshan, the large but scarcely populated Pamir region that sits adjacent to Xinjiang.

If one wanted to run an insurgency in Xinjiang the Pamir region in Eastern Tajikistan is the logical place to base it. It's wild and remote and even all the modern technology that is available will not be able to adequately patrol the border.

I don't know that the Tajik Islamist activity is connected to this or is the sign of a growing network but I wonder and I will certainly watch. There is also a Tajik community in Xinjiang. I've never heard of any radicalisation among the Tajiks of China however they're facing hardship at present. As Muslims they've been targeted along with the Uighurs and given how their culture is presently being suppressed, it wouldn't surprise me if some proved willing to work with cross-border insurgents.

It's too early to tell but there's a 'buzz' about the region right now – an air of expectation and angst.