Statistical Games and Disturbing Trends: American Conservative Christianity at the End of 2020

In 2016 it was reported that 81% of Evangelicals voted for Trump. This figure has proven controversial as the Trumpites see it as embarrassingly low – an indication that Trump isn't properly supported among their Right-wing movement.

To actual political conservatives (whose numbers grow fewer by the day) as opposed to Trumpites who are merely Right-wing advocates, the 81% statistic was also an embarrassment but for a different reason – it was a mark of shame and cause for alarm as Trump was in many ways the antithesis of what Moral Majority-type Christian politicking was supposed to be about. It was sign their movement had gone off the rails.

The Trumpite factions were even more irritated by suggestions that Trump's support in the 2020 election dropped to about 75%. They have repeatedly sought to explain this lack of full support as being due to theological liberalism, crypto-Leftism, and other factors. In other words the one out of every four or five Evangelicals not voting for Trump aren't true Evangelicals. In some cases this is true, in others it is not. But what these heretics mean to do is to make Trumpism a new mark of orthodoxy.

The 'Christian'-Trumpite solution was to re-cast the parameters of the survey and rather than rely on the admittedly nebulous (and increasingly meaningless) term 'Evangelical' they have sought to identity Spiritually Active Governance Engaged Conservative Christians (SAGE Cons) – in other words Christians who profess belief in the veracity and authority of the Scriptures and are motivated to political action. These are the only types of Christians they're interested in. This is the new orthodoxy. And after surveying this newly delineated bloc they determined that in fact 97% voted for Trump.

In some respects I would argue this figure is also inaccurate just as the surveys based on 'Evangelicals' are inaccurate. These terms and definitions allow for too many loopholes. I know United Methodists who would claim the label of Evangelical but knowing their doctrinal positions I can state that (in historical terms) they are not. Likewise there are other Christians that are thoroughly conservative in terms of Scripture and ethics and yet do not fit the label of Evangelical and on the basis of conservative values – and would not vote for Trump either.

The new demographic was contrived in order to produce a high pro-Trump percentage rating. And admittedly there are also many conservatives who are appalled at the Right-wing turn in GOP politics and yet they still voted for Trump as the least worst option.

This conservative-Right wing dynamic was also witnessed in 1930's Germany as well. There were many conservatives that were rather put off by Hitler's Right-wing agenda and yet there was enough overlap and enough abhorrence of the Left-wing alternatives that they supported him. I'm not saying that Trump or Trumpism are Hitlerian but the movement does certainly smack of fascism – probably more akin in style and substance to the likes of Mussolini. Not all forms of fascism resulted in Nazism – a nuanced point few seem willing to grasp in our day. I'm not suggesting that should make anyone feel better about what's happening but we need to be careful in how we define and interpret what is happening.

This question of numbers and percentages is something of a game and a disingenuous one at that. But it's interesting and telling – and certainly alarming. The revolution that is political and theological Trumpism has been waiting in the wings for some time but it came on quick and has come to dominate in a way that still leaves me baffled.

I think of one older man at our church. Born in the 1930's you would think he would have learned something over the course of his life, and garnered a little wisdom perhaps. But apparently reflection is not in his constitution because he is sold out for Trump. He decries Black Lives Matter (BLM) on social media and from the pulpit – falsely accusing the movement of Marxism, and enraged that they spray paint profanity on churches (if that's even true). He spoke of driving across the country and seeing thousands of Trump signs but barely any Biden signs – so there you go, Trump obviously won and the election was stolen from him. Apparently he failed to notice all the obscenities on those signs – they represent a campaign that would have made conservatives even twenty years ago recoil in horror and offense. Like so many he's slipped from conservatism into raw (and dangerous) Right-wing thought. No longer concerned about preserving the old order and values, the contest is a raw slugfest and bloody combat. Principles don't matter anymore. All that matters is that your side wins. It's nationalism for nationalism's sake. The values that once undergirded conservative society are gone. If the eighty year olds have abandoned it, then the debate is effectively over.

By the way though I believe racism is pervasive, I do not support Black Lives Matter (BLM) – as I don't really support any political movement. And I don't mean to defend them but at the same time I tire of the lies being propagated by their opponents – the lies about the movement and the delusional assessments of American culture.

My own unscientific survey, in other words my own intuitions tell me that about nine out of ten conservative Christians have fallen for the Trump delusion. The already terrible, unbiblical and often heretical ideology and agenda of the 1980's Francis Schaeffer-inspired Christian Right has been abandoned and replaced by something far worse. And while I don't buy the 97% number of the Trumpites, the real numbers are high enough.

I think about one out of ten conservative Christians are genuinely (even very) upset by the social turn taken during the Obama-Trump period and yet I do not think that this 10 percent is paralleled in terms of congregations. I don't think 1 out of 10 congregations are (in some unified fashion) opposed to Trumpism on the basis of conservative values and Scriptural teaching. That number is very small, perhaps not able to be statistically registered. So what's happening is there are a small percentage of people sitting in the pews, in the larger mix, gritting their teeth, frustrated and upset by what they're seeing and hearing but they don't know where to turn.

I will state this. If deliberate conscientious ecclesiastical reform is not engaged and enjoined with a deliberate, Biblically based repudiation of all this – then in twenty years that 1/10^th figure will be significantly smaller. I don't think such a statement represents much of a stretch in terms of reasoning. Unless God begins to work a change, unless Church leaders speak up and take action – the situation is looking pretty grim.

Pondering these numbers and percentages gives one a sense of how dire the situation is – it is quite serious. The conservative Christian Church in the United States is literally plunging off of a cliff. If we're not aware of this and prayerfully thinking it through we're going to find ourselves in places we don't want to be or feeling very isolated.

Lord send revival – bring reformation. Your people perish for lack of knowledge and the wolves have scattered the flock.