Fiscal and Diplomatic Cracks in the Atlanticist Wall

https://www.centralasianews.net/news/267414063/eu-china-investment-deal-threatens-us-europe-relations

This represents a further development of what I reported in 2018:

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2018/06/atlantic-breakdown-in-slow-motion.html

http://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2018/04/cracks-in-atlantic-wall.html

Right wing commentators in the United States are focusing on Europe's 'betrayal' – the fact that Europe is not bowing in every case to Washington's instructions and desires. This has been a reality since the fruition of the European Union project in the 1990's. At that time even the continuation of NATO was an open question.

The US pushed and manipulated and the Clinton administration was able to keep things friendly and its policies (particularly in the Balkans) justified the perpetuation of NATO and the perceived necessity of Atlanticism.  A great deal of investment helped. Money was pulled from Germany and the military infrastructure was re-oriented away from the Warsaw Pact to Southern Europe, with an immediate focus on the then crumbling Yugoslavia but ultimately with an eye on the Middle East – a policy the GW Bush administration was keen to pursue.

The Bush period led to a souring of relations with the EU and while Obama was able to heal some of the breaches, the pending realities of Brexit, the attempt to box in Europe with regard to Russia and the rapid rise of China hindered this process – not to mention the NSA scandal unleashed by Edward Snowden.

And then came Donald Trump and the near collapse in US-European relations. While the alliances and agreements still stand on paper, the US has lost a great deal of its political capital and influence. The former role which placed the US in a leadership position (but also granted Europe various privileges as a result) has effectively come to an end. Europe is not prepared to break with America but is returning to the role that was feared by the American Establishment in the 1990's – that of a rival power. The EU's population is larger than the United States and its combined economy is by some measures still bigger than China – making it second in the world. When viewed from a standpoint outside US dominance, the EU is a dangerous rival to the United States. This is true not just in places like Africa and Central Asia but Europe's interests are often at odds with US wishes and demands. This is true in the realms of energy, trade, and technology and as more time elapses the EU is pursuing its own interests. The US does not have its back and in some cases is acting in a semi-antagonistic role.

What else would they do? Many Americans (Trump included) think that Europe should be happy to fall on its sword and take lesser profits out of gratitude for the American liberation in World War II and for the continued protection of NATO. Needless to say many Europeans don't see it that way and many more would question the American narrative from WWII to the present.

The United States is angry that the EU is willing to do business with China. The final and most significant breach will come when the EU starts to seriously invest in a European Army and NATO itself becomes a second-tier entity in the realm of security and global geostrategy. That will mark the end of Atlanticism, the end of the notion that European and American policy must be united – and under American leadership. The latter point is already almost in the grave.

The signs are already there, the building blocks are being laid for a new multi-polar order. Biden will be doing all he can to heal these breaches and win Europe back into the American camp. His new choices for Secretary of State and USAID indicate he's planning to take a hard-line on Russia and despite the sleazy business dealings of Hunter Biden in China (exceeded perhaps only by Trump himself), Biden will also take a hard position with regard to Beijing. He's got his work cut out for him. The economy (despite the stock market) is smarting and the old alliances are fragile. The US is going to have to extend itself and its enemies will be doing all they can to turn that extension into over-extension. Europe for its part will be watching and planning ahead. I think many of the EU's elites have already seen the writing on the wall. America's grasp for unipolarity during the 1991-2001 period will ultimately result in its collapse – and they're already preparing. In only twenty years the dream of unipolarity has all but collapsed and placed not just the dream but the very nation itself in jeopardy. It's a classic case of overreach, of historical lessons not learned.