Building the Anti-Beijing Bloc: The Biden Pivot and the Philippines

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/07/30/philippines-us-military-deal/

During the course of his tenure, Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte has lashed out at Washington. Angry at the long years of US domination of his country and the hypocritical condemnation by Washington of his administration for its brutal policies – he may at last be shifting gears. While he officially is maintaining his 'independent' foreign policy, his days of cozying up to China may be at an end. Time will tell but signals suggest Manila may be pivoting back into the American camp.

For several years Duterte tried to ride the fence, especially as the US seemed ambivalent in its commitments. Obama had tried to 'pivot' to Asia but got bogged down in the Middle East and his moves failed to materialise. This was followed by the Trump era and its schizophrenic policy. Trump railed against China but in a manner that seemed reckless and incoherent. It made potential Asian allies (like the Philippines) nervous and uncertain. And for all of Trump's bluster, he did next to nothing and worse (from the perspective of Asian nations fearful of China), he actually weakened US interests and regional impact and thus strengthened China's hand.

Trump attempted to 'flip' North Korea but failed and left the situation in many ways worse than when he started. It's now a diplomatic enigma left for Biden to solve. Biden can repudiate Trump's overtures and moves vis-à-vis Pyongyang but such actions only further weaken the US hand as it all but enshrines a fickleness to the policy.

While North Korea is the most obvious example, Trump's policy weakened US influence in other nations as well. Japan and South Korea have their doubts, concerns echoed by nations such as the Philippines and Vietnam. Taiwan is probably the lone exception as increasingly the island nation has (in trusting Washington) little or nothing to lose. Taipei will take whatever friends it can find.

But now under Biden a more determined pivot is underway. He's finally implementing what Obama had wanted to do a decade ago but failed. And yet Biden's road is harder, the situation more advanced, and he has fewer tools to work with.

Biden has gotten serious about disengaging from the Middle East. His moves regarding Afghanistan while upsetting to some actually make sense – a point to be revisited in a subsequent article.

Biden is offering money and serious military support for the nations that will stand with Washington. For Manila the situation has gotten worse and the relationship with Beijing has become rather strained. If the US is willing to step up, bolster and (even with force) back their maritime claims, the Duterte may change his tune. He'll endure the lectures and yet he may find that the lectures aren't directed at him anymore. The US will happily look the other way on human rights issues – when it's convenient. Critical allies are often exempt from pressures. Apart from some verbal acknowledgment and mild rebukes, nothing will happen. Duterte, hothead that he is has a hard time enduring them but if he's desperate enough – he'll play the game.

Besides what can the US really say about kidnapping and extra-judicial killing? They've institutionalised it – just not against their own population. That too could be questioned but it's not polite to do so.

In similar vein a shift may be taking place in Vietnam. In the spring it looked like US overtures were being met with a cold shoulder.

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2021/05/vietnam-and-anti-china-coalition.html

And yet as we near the end of summer, the situation seems to be changing. The US has demonstrated its commitment and Biden (once Obama's diplomatic bulldog) is following up (at least thus far) on his rhetoric. You wouldn't know it from the Right. They insist on painting Biden as weak and that his weakness is emboldening Beijing. But that's not the consensus. Everyone else is talking about Pivot 2.0 – and that it's serious this time.

None of this is meant to be taken in a positive light. Far from it. There are no Christian options here. Such militarism (on both and all sides) will only lead to conflict and further tensions. Nationalism will be fueled which is always a poison. These things are important to understand not because we need to cheer or stand by Biden. By no means. Rather, we as Christians need to understand what is happening and why. We need to have our eyes open. Because like it or not, the Church (both in the West and in Asia) will be affected by these movements.