10 December 2022

The Drone Wars are Here

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-conducts-exercise-preparing-for-first-unmanned-surface-fleet

It seems that about every other military and weapons story is related to drone development. As many things in the world are changing, so is the way of waging war.


We're already familiar with aviation drones. We've seen them on the news and in the movies but more and more I keep reading about naval drones and there are discussions as to whether or not one was used in the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge in October 2022. There have also been discussions regarding maritime drones and the sinking of Russian naval ships in the Black Sea.

Drones are also being developed as tanks and other forms of land assault vehicles – even while the Ukraine War has opened up a new discussion about the viability of tanks in modern warfare. The Russians so long renowned for the tank squadrons have been shown up on the battlefield – as aerial drones have wreaked havoc on their divisions by means of top-down attacks. By some counts Russia has lost over two-thousand tanks in less than a year of fighting.

And it's clear that drones are finding their way into space. While Washington denies the X-37 is a weapons platform, there's good reason for cynicism. I don't doubt scientific experiments are being conducted with regard to space-grade materials and the like and reconnaissance is an obvious application. At this point weaponising space would open a Pandora's Box that no one is quite yet ready to entertain but it's clear enough that things are moving in that direction. As China develops its own space station, and even satellites now play a prominent role in modern warfare, it is all but inevitable that the next series of wars will involve the weaponisation of space as nations move to attack and defend their orbital interests.

It's ironic that with the big Top Gun movie still riding the wave of cinematic profits, the reality is the era of the fighter pilot is most likely coming to an end. The profession is becoming obsolete.

On the one hand someone might argue that the age of drone warfare is a good thing – less need for human cannon fodder. And they might be right when it comes to pilots, but not for the people on the ground. And the economic costs are daunting to say the least, all the more with suicide drones. And while we may see a proliferation of drones, if these machines are allowed to act autonomously by means of AI – and the restrictions against the targeting of human beings is removed in the context of total war, then watch out. What seemed humane, may prove to be brutal beyond anyone's calculation – a science-fiction dystopian nightmare situation come to life.

To this day, few in the West have grasped what twenty years of drone warfare did to the psychology of the Pashtuns and others living on the Afghan-Pakistan border. The people are traumatised. It was not the gritty kind of door-to-door urban warfare that troubled them but the terror of death being unleashed from the skies – an ever present danger that was entirely unpredictable.

War is entering a new phase and with it will come a new set of ethical questions. The answers are all bankrupt but they will have to be wrestled with and undoubtedly some will attempt to put a moral gloss on some of the answers and having created and contrived their own ethical frameworks, they will point the finger at armies and nations which transgress these 'rules of war' – an oxymoronic concept if ever there was one. Such arguments are of course built on sand. Two decades ago the thought of autonomous combat drones was categorically rejected. The very suggestion was met with horror. And yet now, it's not only be talked about, if the rumours are true, these machines are already operational – and worse, being considered for domestic law enforcement. That's always how it goes. The official announcement will be made after the fact. The context of the debate will not be a question of 'if' but simply a reflection of how, and more often than not a justification for it.

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