The Drums of War in the Asia-Pacific

https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/report-china-is-on-course-to-overtake-america-s-naval-capabilities

If you read the article carefully, the argument can be made that the headline is guilty of sensationalism. America is clearly in the position of supremacy but that margin of domination is not what it was thirty years ago. This I think is probably self-evident and hardly surprising to anyone.

And if it's sensationalist, then one has to raise the question of fear-mongering. The article is meaningless apart from the context of Taiwan and the larger contest between the US and China in the Asia-Pacific. China is always portrayed as the aggressor and the violator of the 'rules based order', even while ignoring the fact that Washington has worked to surround China militarily and that the United States is not even an Asian country to begin with. The rules based order is basically the order imposed by the United States in 1945 after dropping atomic bombs on Japan. The US all but owned the Asia-Pacific as China was shattered by the war and still in the midst of a civil war.

The notion that China, now the second biggest economy in the world and a nation near to attaining super-power status, should just bow to US domination in the region is ridiculous. And this is even as the US is right off its shore, with bases postured all around China, and while American domestic political rhetoric and actions take on a posture of hostility. American politicians openly call for support of protestors and the US is the epicenter of Chinese resistance and anti-Beijing propaganda.

In many ways it was the US alarm over China's rise toward the end of the Bush II era which helped to create the context for Xi Jinping's rise and his re-casting of China's role – yet another of America's self-fulfilled prophecies and created villains. Obama's Pivot to Asia never attained its goals but it was clear more than a decade ago that Washington was preparing to contain China and pursuing policies such as the TPP which were meant to rein in China's ability to exert influence and expand its regional influence, let alone a global footprint.

And while Trump in his ignorance more or less wrecked those plans, he nevertheless ramped up the anti-China rhetoric – weakening America's hand even while he ratcheted up the tension.

Further, America has backed Right-wing governments in Japan – governments that have engaged in revisionism regarding World War II and even now seek to remilitarize. This may be a minor point to Americans, but for China which lost tens of millions in the Sino-Japanese War (1931-1945), which later merged with World War II – they have not forgotten. Additionally the US under Trump attempted to 'flip' North Korea and failed. Such a move would have been viewed as dangerous to Beijing – a revisiting of the issues that led to China's intervention during the Korean War in 1950, a war in which China lost another 200,000 men. And then let's not forget as the US backs Taiwan, that around 9 million died in the two-phase Chinese Civil War (1928-37/1945-49), a conflict directly related to today's Taiwan controversy.

The culture of the United States which collectively speaking has little understanding of geography or historical memory, cannot properly appreciate or even apprehend these realities as they so far exceed anything in the American experience. Nor can many Americans grasp just how much these events overshadow the thinking and calculations within nations like China, North Korea, and Russia which in the twentieth century suffered losses and devastation on an order virtually unknown in history. What Japan did China, Germany to Russia, and the United States to North Korea were deeds that dwarf the worst atrocities of Attila the Hun, or Genghis Khan. And while those evil men literally haunt the annals of history – the deeds of the twentieth century empires of Japan, Germany, and the United States are atrocities placed within living memory.

This is not to suggest that the losing nations were innocent or good, but this is beside point. These genocidal campaigns represent the extremity of total war. Putin's ongoing war in Ukraine is not even in the same league.

In addition to these US machinations vis-à-vis Beijing, Washington continues to expand its military footprint in Australia and it has reached out once more to the Philippines. After thirty years it seems the US (once again under a Marcos) is set to return – re-establishing a military presence in the archipelago, the site of brutal American war crimes just over a century ago, and a key base for US operations in theatres such as Vietnam – another chapter of American atrocity.

And as before, an unabashed authoritarian Marcos regime stands ready to crush all descent. The US can say all it wants about human rights and the like, or combating authoritarianism in places like Russia and China but the recent Kamala Harris trip to Manila renders these statements as meaningless and even ridiculous.

Of course the call for a Navy buildup means big money. Even now the wheels of the weapons industry are running white hot due to NATO's proxy war in Ukraine. And yet little of this has had to do with the navy. Such editorials lay the groundwork for an expansion – indeed such pieces often are not meant to 'make the case' but rather prepare the audience and lay the groundwork for a course that has already been decided.

Similar calls are being made in the realm of drones – and that's one increasingly prominent area of military theatre that the US may struggle with. It is doubtful as to whether or not US manufacturing capability can keep up with China. US drones may (or may not) be better, but for sheer volume, it's hard to imagine anyone keeping up with the command economy of Beijing and its impressive industrial sector. One wonders will we see 'wave' drone attacks, reminiscent of the infantry waves that streamed across the Yalu in 1950?

The US is on the record. It has been targeting China for over a decade. The fact that Beijing has responded by building up its navy should surprise no one. This is not to say that the Chinese government under Xi Jinping is good, moral, or altogether innocent. Indeed it too has succumbed to the inevitably of empire that emerges as a result of capitalism. It's not an innocent party in all of this, but to villainize Beijing for expanding its navy – even while ignoring everything the US has been doing is just dishonest. It is however convenient if you want to justify the expansion of military spending and/or justify a policy of militarism.

The world is clearly marching toward a period of major war. What was a hint or possibility a decade ago seems all but certain now.