11 February 2023

Assessing Musharraf's Tenure 1999-2008

Here we go, I thought as I heard the BBC lead-in on the death of Pervez Musharraf. As expected the story was for the most part an exercise in spin and disingenuous reflection.


I was actually surprised when former US ambassador to Pakistan Ryan Crocker talked about how Pakistan felt betrayed by the United States in the aftermath of the Soviet withdrawal. Their near neighbour with a shared population of Pashtuns fell into chaos and civil war in the 1990's and from the standpoint of Islamabad, the Taliban represented a stabilizing element. Pakistan knew that the Americans weren't going to stay forever and as such they always hedged their bets and prepared for that day when the US would give up and leave – and of course they were right. They knew Afghanistan and its history better than the hubris-soaked strategists back in Washington.

The story utterly ignored the unofficial but well known story that the US threatened Pakistan after 9/11- with Richard Armitage threatening to knock the country back into the Stone Age if they didn't comply. The country was essential for a logistical operation that would supply American troops and the proxy government it established in 2002. Musharraf had little choice in the matter and though the US did not want to openly endorse someone who had come to power by means of a military coup – Musharraf would get a pass if he helped the Americans.

His collaboration with the United States generated domestic tensions within Pakistan and helped fuel the Pakistani Taliban. Many Americans view Musharraf and the Pakistani state as double-dealing and less than faithful allies but it never occurs to them that the leadership in Islamabad would say the same.

One thing also seems clear – Musharraf did not have complete control over all elements of Pakistan's military and intelligence sectors. This combined with US threats in the fall of 2001 have to be taken into consideration when one weighs his legacy.

Musharraf ultimately resigned and walked away in 2008 – which was probably a good time. I'm sure he was also thinking about Zia ul-Haq, the Pakistani leader who worked with the Americans in the 1980's. Over time he made his enemies both at home and abroad and in 1988 he died in a rather mysterious plane crash. Musharraf continued to operate on the fringe of Pakistani politics, but his time had come to an end – and given the scandal surrounding the Bin Laden raid in 2011, he was probably relieved to no longer be in power.

I don't think he will be remembered with a great deal of fondness either in Pakistan or Washington and yet in some respects his skills were considerable as he was compelled to navigate an almost impossible situation - which all but dominated his tenure. Western coverage surrounding his death is wed (for the most part) to false narratives as the US (to this day) cannot honestly tell the story of its adventures and schemes in the borderlands between Central Asia and the Subcontinent.

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