Putting Pressure on Türkiye

https://thecradle.co/article-view/20848/us-treasury-official-issues-warning-to-turkiye-uae-regarding-evasion-of-sanctions

These are stressful times for the AKP leadership in Ankara and many wonder if its long tenure is nearing its end. Erdogan has been on the West's blacklist for years but his recent moves to block Sweden from joining NATO have earned him a new set of enemies and with elections in the spring, the pressure is starting to mount. These moves by the US Treasury Department are only going to pour fuel on an already intensely burning fire.

Inflation is still out of control and the Turkish economy is ailing. The West has certainly helped to make this a reality, but Erdogan has proven his own worst enemy, clinging to the optics of growth and investment, even while inflation is wiping out capital and crushing the working and middle class – his base no less.

There are other intrigues afoot, which will also affect Erdogan's already damaged standing and voting base. The Grey Wolves are the paramilitary arm of the MHP – the Far-Right Neo-Fascist party that at present is allied to Erdogan's AKP and critical for him to hold on to power. And yet there are divisions within the MHP and these may have played a role in the late December 2022 assassination of Sinan Ateş, a former leader within the party and of the Grey Wolves. Aside from lost votes, a divided Grey Wolves and MHP could spell trouble especially in light of the most pressing issue for Türkiye at the moment – the earthquake.

The full impact of this tragedy is not yet known. Tens of thousands of people are dead and the full economic and geopolitical effects have yet to be felt. Events across the border in Syria may also affect events in Türkiye, and the West has done all it can to block aid to Syria and spin these events. The heaviest damage in Syria is in the 'rebel' held areas – the areas largely controlled by al Qaeda and ISIS-affiliates, the 'rebels' the US and Ankara supported at times throughout the civil war. Assad has little or no control over those areas but the suffering and lack of aid is being blamed on him. This is deliberate and Western media is happy to comply.

The West is going to lay the sympathy on thick for the Turkish population but in reality Western strategists are hoping these events will ignite a firestorm that will take down Erdogan and his AK Party once and for all. A lot could happen in the next few months. The elections are set to take place in May or June and many will be watching Erdogan. Will he invoke emergency powers and delay the vote? There are dangers involved if he does and in the past he might have relied on a group like the Grey Wolves to tamp down public protest and discontent. Can he count on them right now?

Time will tell.