The Singapore Summit and a Side-Show in Guam

https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2018/06/07/Navy-to-start-annual-exercise-Malabar-in-Guam/8941528391096/?utm_source=sec&utm_campaign=sl&utm_medium=4

This is not getting much coverage in the West but you can be sure it's noteworthy in Asia. The timing says it all.

Guam of course has been in the news due to the recent threat-trading that was taking place between Pyongyang and Washington. The fact that the US is holding a major naval exercise there... while Trump and Kim meet in Singapore is certainly symbolic and sends a message of both threat and disdain.

Beijing will take note of the other two participants. Japan under Abe is re-militarising and rejecting its post-WWII legacy of pacifism. Somewhat misleading Tokyo has remained a satrap for the past seventy years and while officially pacifist has hosted large numbers of American military forces.

Japan has participated in other exercises but this one is different because now India is becoming a more integral part of the US-Asian strategy. Modi has turned India into a frontline state and part of the US plan to counter Chinese influence in the Eurasian region. India is also being pulled into the Pacific signalled by subtle nomenclature shifts in American language. The 'Indo-Pacific' is now being spoken of, a clear signal for Beijing.

China must sit by this week and watch with nervous frustration as Kim meets with Trump and its historical enemies drill with the US Navy a mere stone's throw away as it were.

Everyone will be watching Kim and trying to determine how much power he really has. Will he have to go back to Pyongyang to consult and make decisions? Will he have to talk to Beijing?

Are there forces both in China and the United States that don't want a deal made with North Korea?

The region is shrouded in intrigue this week. Singapore is at least right now a den of spies. There's a lot going on and the outcome will affect the lives of millions, even billions of people.

There's one other side story here, that of Australia. Canberra used to be part of the annual Malabar Exercise but pulled out a decade ago amid tensions with China and Washington. The US has been putting a lot of pressure on Australia in recent years to get back into the game as it were. The threat is real as the US has at times most certainly meddled in Australian politics. Officially Australia is part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal anti-Beijing alliance between Australia, Japan, India and the United States and yet clearly the relationship is shaky.

The thing is, while Washington is undoubtedly thrilled for India to be participating, New Delhi has blocked Australia's attempt to participate in the Malabar exercise on Guam. Why? Some speculate it has to do with Modi's attempt to pacify China. They nearly had another war break out in 2017 and while Modi has clearly embraced an anti-Beijing trajectory in his relationship with the US, too much too fast will lead to confrontation. Apparently India conducting naval drills with Australia on Guam was going to prove upsetting. Australia is feeling squeezed. It needs access to the Asia-Pacific region and yet at the same time culturally is part of the Anglo-American axis. Australia has some regional muscle but not enough to take on China. The US is often all but urging Canberra to provoke Beijing... to its own hurt.

Canberra knows that Washington is using them. They're trying to please everyone in one sense and yet in the end no one least of all the Australian Establishment is very happy. During the first decade of the Afghan War Australia sold fighter jets to Pakistan, a move that angered New Delhi. Now that the relationship with Islamabad has largely soured, what did Australia get? They made some money to be sure and pleased Washington but politically speaking the sale probably did more damage than anything else.

For all that India is still open to performing exercises with Australia and yet will not grant them the same kind of relationship they have established with the United States. India is dancing a complicated step and it would seem at the moment finds Australia to be more of a nuisance and distraction than any kind of viable help to its overall strategy.