Haftar: Made in the USA

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190614-sisi-egypt-will-always-suppor

Contrary to the official narrative and policy I would argue that the United States has been supporting Haftar since his return to Libya in 2011.

Few would doubt that his part in the 2011 so-called Libyan Revolution was sponsored by Washington. But the official narrative posits that he fell out of favour during the subsequent and ongoing civil war which many date to 2014.

I think you could make a case that he was sidelined and that things spiraled so quickly out of control that Washington was all but forced to work with European allies and even the larger international community. The Government of National Accord headquartered in Tripoli became the internationally recognised government... but it has never held sway over the country and a case can be made that the United States has never been pleased with the arrangement.

In the meantime the civil war has raged on and on a practical level it is Haftar and his Tobruk allies that are taking the fight to the Islamists. It's unbelievably complicated and yet I think there are factions within the US that have supported Haftar all along even when the official policy said otherwise.

At this point he is poised to oust the Tripoli government and the fear is that he will establish a dictatorship. Western governments which purport to stand for democratic values will never openly support a dictatorship. But practically speaking they would be happy for this to happen. Libya has fallen into chaos and what the West wants more than anything at this point is stability. The longer the Libyan War continues, the more opportunities will arise for the conflict to spread and for outside players and agents to get involved. Washington is particularly irritated by the involvement of Russian arms dealers and mercenaries and in fact I wouldn't doubt that it was the Tripoli government's coziness with Moscow that led Washington to begin openly supporting Haftar... and perhaps giving him the 'go ahead' for his Tripoli campaign.

Although at this point even Haftar has met with the Russians. Part of this can possibly be attributed to the instability surrounding the Trump administration and its commitments and the general lack of clarity and commitment on the part of the United States. Everyone wants to keep their options open and yet also be careful not to step on (or stomp on) US toes. Washington is still important, even vital but under Trump eyes can wander and trust is at its lowest ebb. Everyone has to think a few moves ahead and if Trump wins re-election in 2020, look for more US allies and assets to broaden their horizons. US hegemony is in doubt and though Trump's ruling ethos is one of threat, fear and terror... some are beginning to doubt.

Additionally Egypt's al-Sisi is supporting Haftar. He wouldn't dare to do this without the US providing cover as again Haftar is warring against the internationally recognised government. Al-Sisi's own standing remains in doubt in terms of the international community and there would have to be some incentive for him to want to stick his neck out and openly support Haftar. In addition to collaborating with the Trump administration the Egyptian leader is thinking ahead and planning for the future. The Tripoli government has no real power but if Haftar takes over, al-Sisi wants to be sure to have not only a friend but someone who owes him a debt of gratitude.

I do not doubt there are some within the Western Establishment and particularly within the United States that don't want to see Haftar come to power. His victory (and US support for it) will wound UN and even EU credibility... but this too is in keeping with the policy goals of the same factions that would support Haftar anyway. They are happy to defy institutions like the UN and EU and to make them look weak and foolish.

Haftar lived in Langley Virginia for almost twenty years. He can go rogue and yet this is unlikely as the folks at the CIA will have taken the necessary precautions. In addition a Haftar government in opposition to the United States wouldn't last long. It wouldn't be very difficult to come up with reasons to sanction and isolate the non-internationally recognised government and of course the Islamist elements could be empowered to either oust Haftar or create conditions for yet another Western intervention. These are but a few of the possible scenarios.

There's an official story but then there's the practical reality. Official policy serves a purpose and the narrative can be spun but the fact that Haftar sits poised to take over Libya is hardly a surprise. Anyone would have said that's what he was being groomed for all along.

Libya possesses large oil reserves and given that it's the northern point of embarkation for African migrants to enter Europe, its position is strategic. It borders Egypt, Niger and Chad placing it at the heart of an ever-widening war in North Africa. The US doesn't want to see Chinese or Russian involvement, nor even a controlling share held by the French or Italians. Haftar is the logical choice. He will fight the Islamists... those being backed by the West will be betrayed when the time is right... and more importantly he will stop the migration.

Will he cut business deals with Moscow and Beijing? It will be a dance. If Washington fully supports him, he'll follow through and cut off US competitors. If Washington proves luke-warm and untrustworthy he will seek to keep his options open... angering Washington and Wall Street but not to the point of overthrow.