Biden and the Black Sea

https://www.stripes.com/news/europe/navy-sends-three-ships-into-black-sea-as-russia-takes-notice-1.660114

Despite the disinformation campaign waged by the media, Trump never really 'let up' on Russia. In fact in many respects his administration took more actions against Moscow than the Obama administration ever did.

However I expect Biden to be a bit different. Rather than Obama 2.0, we're more likely to see what a Clinton administration might have done. The Syria airstrike and the uptick in activity in the Black Sea is only the beginning. Russia is to endure it even while the United States would hardly tolerant such actions by either Moscow or Beijing in the Gulf of Mexico, Puget Sound, or off the coast of California.

Biden could be using such measures as a tactic to set the board up for negotiations over missiles but it seems unlikely. Bit by bit the US is seeking to tighten the noose and encircle Vladimir Putin. And then, when the moment is right – when there's unrest in the streets or when Russian troops have moved to quell something on its borders – NATO will strike. Putin knows this and thus he is taking measures such as deploying the anti-ship missile system. NATO will certainly triumph in an engagement. He knows this but he also wants to send a signal – that he's going to make it hurt if they attack him. They had better count the cost.

It's tragic as none of this was necessary. Putin was made into the villain he's become. I'm not suggesting he was ever a moral person but when he came to power just over twenty years ago he did not want a war with the West. He sought friendship and in keeping with history, the West smiled and shook his hand even while they plotted against him – even as they are this very moment.

Russia was never going to be a liberal democracy but it didn't have to turn the direction it did. Nations rise against nations. That's to be expected but one cannot be but grieved when one considers the state of the Church in Russia and how it has been caught up in this – a morass largely fomented and created by the West and its supposedly Christian-influenced order. Rather than let New Testament Christianity in Russia bring the gospel to hordes of lost people – Western Christianity has allied with the Beast power of Western Imperialism leading the Russian Beast to clampdown on any kind of religion that seems even passively subversive or has political or financial connections to the West.

The greatest hope for peace is an American withdrawal from the theatre. Another term of Trump might have brought about such a de facto result. While the Establishment under his administration kept up the mechanisms geared toward nations like Russia, China, and Iran, there was no cohesiveness, no concentrated policy and it was beginning to fragment. Trump had not abandoned the field as it were, but his team was simply running about and not actually engaged in the game, let alone trying to 'win' it. An imperfect analogy to be sure, but better than the disinformation campaign flowing from mainstream quarters – with its endless focus on 'aggressive' Russian 'fly-bys' and the like. These sorts of things happened all the time during the Cold War and didn't receive the coverage and attention they do today.

Will Biden be able to reassert American hegemony or will the EU continue to pull away and find a modus vivendi with its Eurasian neighbour and rival? The latter scenario would mark a great defeat for Washington and its one every Christian should be praying for. Only then is there hope of a relaxing of the situation in Russia, or even Belarus for that matter. Liberal democracy may not triumph (a point that hardly matters to New Testament Christianity) but a civil war or proxy war is a far worse and more destructive prospect – in every way.