Erdogan, Central Asia, and The Great Game in 2021

https://journal-neo.org/2021/10/14/erdogan-rushes-to-form-a-broad-coalition-of-pro-turkish-forces/

Turkey is still attempting to put its stamp on Central Asia. As expected with Erdogan, his programme is focused on Pan-Turkism with a veneer of Islam.

This is not to say that Erdogan takes his Islam lightly. Rather, in terms of Central Asia, he's focusing more on the Turkic-angle. The reasons for this are many – partly as a means to counter Chinese cultural influence. Another reason is because of the complicated relationship of Islam and national identity that has emerged in the post-Soviet context of Central Asia. The dictatorships and authoritarian states that rule the various 'stan' nations of the region are attempting to steer a course between Islamism and the potential dangers it brings and raw nationalism which runs the risk of ripping the region apart and leading to ethnic and irredentist wars.

Instead, the authoritarian regimes of Central Asia have sought a status quo – nation states rooted in toned down (and at times re-imagined) cultural identity and Islam. And yet everything is kept within tight parameters and no serious dissent is entertained or permitted.

The article overplays the European Union's fading role in Central Asia. The reality is quite the opposite as the EU has become a viable alternative to the United States. Turkey is another option but it also contains some dangers for the states involved.

The overall focus of the article is to shine the light on yet another element of resistance to Chinese domination in the energy rich and strategically important region. But given the forum of the article (even though it does not elaborate this point) it also speaks to ongoing and historical tensions between Moscow and Ankara. The informal (essentially anti-USA) alliance is holding despite a long list of historical and geopolitical realities set against it. These realities will be continue to be exploited by the United States and given Turkey's assertiveness it's not out of the question for Beijing to also resort to such methods.

Ankara has long been a beacon to the Turkic people of Central Asia but the reality is – China is closer, the economics are more pragmatic and Beijing has a lot more to offer.

These states will continue to try and play off all these powers against each other, some tilting one way or the other for a season but the past three decades of shown that none of them want to align too hard and fast to one faction. It's their means of survival.

And yet in terms of the Great Game 2.0 that emerged in the aftermath of the Cold War – the winner is yet to be declared, but at the moment the clear loser is the United States. It overplayed its hand, got distracted, and as an outside power it offered little true incentive to these nations to tilt its way. Its status now diminished, America's power (both soft and hard) has proven ineffective and has now been overshadowed and eclipsed by regional players and the rising star that is Beijing.