Indonesian Air Power and the Balance of Power in the Asia-Pacific

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/12/23/indonesia-sukhoi-us-french-planes/

These types of stories appear on a regular basis. One can't read too much into them or overplay their meaning but they reveal something of the behind the scenes struggle between the powers.

Weapons sales are first and foremost an economic transaction, the coffers of the state-connected military-corporate complex are filled. But given the nature of arms, these are also diplomatic transactions made within the context of geopolitical calculation. In some cases it's a calculation that is geared toward control and manipulation.

On the one hand Indonesia is one several Asia-Pacific nations caught in the new Asian Cold War – the struggle for power between the declining American Empire and the rising Chinese one. Resentful toward America and its history in the region (and in particular Indonesia), there is a reticence to bow to American demands. But at the same time the alternative is to bow to China which is a nation on the rise and one that is rapidly expanding its power base.

China is ruthless in its dealings but the US record is dark and terrible. In the case of Indonesia it's one of dictatorship and genocide. In the 1960's the US helped bring Suharto to power and in the process of doing so there was a great purge in which the US played a significant logistical role. Over a million people died and these events and the role played by the United States haven't been forgotten as indeed that legacy of mass graves and disappeared has only been wrestled with in the 2000's. In that respect, for many Indonesians the memories are still raw.

But the US is the devil they know and the US isn't what it once was in terms of strength. Indonesia like some of the other ASEAN members has been reaching out in other directions – like to Moscow. And yet, even that attempt at finding a third way leads to punitive actions, entanglements, and difficulties. And so we see here because of the pressure put on by Washington, Jakarta has backed out of the deal to purchase Russian planes. They're throwing an obligatory offering to the US war machine but at the same time they're irritating US brokers by picking the other Western alternative – France. The US can't really complain and there's no basis for threat but you be certain that there are US officials who are irritated by the move.

That said, it still represents a victory – Russia didn't make the sale. They lost the money and the interests in the Indonesian military, and a stake in the region.

In the grand scheme of things, it's a minor transaction but it's interesting because of what it reveals. And of course this is just the tip of the iceberg.