The Azerbaijan Proxy

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/8/analysis-will-azerbaijan-iran-tensions-lead-to-war

This is a story that I've been following for years – the fact that Azerbaijan has become a platform for Israeli military and espionage operations directed against Iran. Azerbaijan itself is a divided land – the Turkic-speaking region was carved out of Persia first by the Tsars in the nineteenth century and then under Stalin the northern portion of the territory became part of the USSR. Apart from a brief episode in the context of the Russian Revolution and Civil War, Azerbaijan only became truly independent in 1991. And while the population is mostly Shiite (orienting them toward Iran), being Turkic they also retain close cultural ties to Ankara and share the general Turkish hostility toward the Armenians – with whom they have fought two wars since the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Until the rise of Erdogan and the sundering of the informal but vital Turkish-Israeli alliance, Azerbaijan's regional diplomacy was (apart from its relationship with Armenian-ally Russia) pretty straightforward. After the Ankara-Tel Aviv relationship blew up in 2010 over the Gaza Flotilla incident, Azerbaijan was left in an awkward spot and yet has managed to retain a strong relationship with both nations – and of course looming in the background is the powerful presence and influence of the United States. Washington moved in quickly during the early 1990's eager to gain access to oil and geostrategic foothold on the shores of the Caspian Sea.

The article rightly cites Iranian support for Armenia, a pressing issue as Armenia and Azerbaijan remain hostile over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and fought their most recent war over the territory in 2020 – which marked a grave defeat for Yerevan. For a long time the regional alignments were Russia, Armenia, and Iran in opposition to Turkey, Azerbaijan, Israel and of course the United States. Azerbaijan was unique in that while be close to Turkey (historically antagonistic to Russia), Bake also maintained some ties with Moscow. This arrangement still stands other than the breaking of the Ankara-Tel Aviv axis, a point that is further complicated by events in Syria and the Kurdish populations in both Syria and Northern Iraq. The breakdown has also generated no small amount of grief and frustration for the United States. And strange as it may be, Turkey has moved into a posture of friendship and collaboration with Moscow – or had until the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

While the West is more likely to focus on Iranian machinations within Azerbaijan, the article correctly points out that Tehran fears subversive movements within its own Azeri territory centered on Tabriz. And given the recent hijab-protests and wider political unrest, and the role played by both the West and the Kurds in these movements, the Islamic Republic is growing more and more concerned about Fifth-Column elements within its borders – as well as its external and cross-border threats. It's safe to say that the leadership in Tehran believes that being passive or idle only invites further attacks and machinations.

The Israeli government faces severe domestic difficulties and Netanyahu seems more than willing to turn to war in order to distract the public and unify its energies vis-à-vis a foreign opponent. Israel continues to strike at Syria, is now flirting with moves against Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the country seems on the brink of a new Palestinian Intifada. And yet it's also well known that Netanyahu wants to strike Iran and has been relentless in calling for Western backing in a war against Tehran. Israel has established ties with the Kurds in Iraq and utilizes bases in Azerbaijan. The stage has been set for some time but tensions are rising – all the more with the geopolitical fallout from the war in Ukraine.

Iran is clearly irritated and making moves in support of Armenia and yet Tehran may be walking into a trap – one set by Israel and elements within the United States. While it is doubtful that Washington and Tel Aviv are looking for a full-scale war, there is a desire to launch airstrikes and cripple key elements of Iran's military and energy infrastructure. It is hoped that by sowing chaos, elements and allies on the ground will be successful in ousting the government – a move that would send shockwaves across the Middle East, affecting an arc of territory from the Arabian Peninsula, to the Levant and Central Asia.

Once again a little nation is being used as the bait, as a proxy and neither the Israelis or Americans care one whit about the people of Azerbaijan and the deadly consequences of war should a conflict erupt. Instead they will use the opportunity to pursue their own interests and pour fuel on the fire. The regime in Tehran is hardly sympathetic, but to understand its rise to power one must understand the history of the region and the context that led to its emergence in 1979. It remains a potent force in the region but its standing is precarious at times and Washington continues to work toward regime change. How many have already died in pursuit of this goal is a number that almost defies tabulation.