One is left wondering if the decision by the White House to slack up a little on Venezuela sanctions is about foreign policy strategy or simply to help out Chevron – and thus the markets. It's probably a bit of both.
The first story ran in September, and then in October as the El Pais story reports, the US removed more restrictions.
So why is the US letting up on Venezuela? They've been hostile to Caracas since the days of Chavez who died in 2013. Under Maduro's decade of rule the US has done all it can to squeeze Venezuela to the breaking point, even sponsoring coup attempts – anyone remember Juan Guaido? The economy has been made to scream and the story at the US border testifies to this as people have fled – and not everyone who heads to the United States is pursuing the 'American Dream', many simply want to make some money and the re-settle either at home or somewhere else in Latin America. For many America no longer glows as it once did – it's simply a means to an end.
Of course the Biden administration may hope (among other things) that the uptick in the Venezuelan economy will relieve some of the pressure on the US border.
I tend to think this is also a bigger story about the politics of Latin America in general and larger geopolitical questions concerning Russia and China and the dangerous possibility of a nation like Venezuela becoming fully integrated into something like BRICS.
Maduro has shown that he's really not all that principled and can be bought – and so the US is trying the honey approach and dispensing with the vinegar, or at least giving it a try. As the article suggests, Caracas was finding work-arounds via the black market and given the geopolitics of the moment, the black market is also overlapping with an emerging global economy that is set to rival the G7. The bottom line is Venezuela has oil and the West wants it and more importantly (and this is contrary to the energy independence arguments of the American Right), they want to make sure other disfavoured nations can't get it.
Washington would love to see Guaido or Machado as president, but the time isn't right. Maduro has maintained control in a tight economy. Though it seems counterintuitive, maybe the question is to ask whether he can hold on to power when the money is really flowing?
Also, the thought of a huge oil deal – with maybe new infrastructure investments, would have the potential to give a rival nation (like Russia or China) a stronger foothold in the Latin America/Caribbean region, something Washington does not want to see. Maduro is complicating things though with his recent push toward Guyana and its untapped Essequibo oilfields. The claim has been made but no one is sure if it's going to be pursued. Many are simply waiting to see the outcome of next year's presidential election as that will likely determine the course of events in the Essequibo. It's a good thing that Brazil is currently headed by Lula as the country has historically backed Guyana's claim. If Bolsonaro was in charge, there could be a war between Brazil and Venezuela. Lula will be more reasonable but if the stories are true he's mobilising his military even now. The situation seems volatile and bears watching.
All things considered this is a sideshow that's probably a source of irritation in Washington. They'll try to mediate – even the Venezuelan opposition supports the Guyana claim so they're not necessarily going to get anywhere on this by ousting Maduro. The Guyana-Essequibo oil discovery is significant and there's a lot of oil and thus a lot of money at stake but in the grand scheme of things – Venezuela is the prize.
If BRICS did not exist and the petrodollar was not under threat, the US would likely continue its hard-line policies vis-à-vis Venezuela but the world has changed and with the change comes policy shifts.
Note also how an increase in production will allow payments to be made to US creditors – once again, Wall Street plays a deciding role in the policy decisions and the overall strategy. There are already hints of a debt restructuring scheme – which will give Wall Street a lot of leverage when it comes to the economy. Will Maduro go down the same pseudo-Left austerity route we've seen so often in Europe? Or will he take Venezuela into a war that will (in the end) bring him down?
See also:
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-latin-american-pseudo-left.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2023/09/bp-and-right-wing-paramilitaries-in.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2017/08/the-forces-behind-latin-american-unrest.html
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.