Morales and the Struggle for Bolivia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/27/bolivias-evo-morales-vehicle-gunfire-political-tension-rises

This story of attempted assassination has all but dropped out of the news even while pro-Morales protests continue in Bolivia. It would seem that a Morales return remains a threat and as such he's been targeted. But by whom?

It's strange but he's had a complete falling out with Luis Arce the current president who came into office in November 2020 - ousting the Right-wing and American-backed forces that had ousted Morales in the 2019 coup. Arce had long served under Morales and yet now the two men have become enemies it would seem.

Arce more or less steered Bolivia back on to the course that Morales had established during his tenure and it may simply be that Morales is bitter because he's been supplanted as the leader of the party and the larger movement. It could just be egos or there could be something more. But it's clear that Morales won't go away.

Some believe the assassination attempt was staged while others point to Arce. For my part, I believe Washington is probably less than thrilled with Arce but from their standpoint he's preferable to Morales. Arce doesn't have the 'cult' following of Morales and as such his political defeat in a subsequent election won't generate as much of a social and political crisis.

But if Morales keeps agitating - it could mean trouble. On the one hand it could be a gift to the Right as it will split the Left during the 2025 election. You could almost argue that Morales is useful as a spoiler. But for others they simply want him gone. They don't want to risk him becoming president again. In the meantime Arce has signed lucrative lithium deals with both Beijing and Moscow. Many believe it was Bolivia's lithium that motivated the ouster of Morales in 2019 - an event that many connected to the United States and figures such as Elon Musk.

Their plans have been thwarted but there's still a lot of tension. The elections are in August and as it stands right now, Morales has been barred from participation and the state continues in its programme to destroy his character. He's now being charged with sex crimes. It's difficult not to be dubious given how this tool has been used in the past.. The most recent polls show right-wing candidate Manfred Reyes Villa in the lead. Arce has not yet declared his candidacy, but if Morales and Arce continue to be at each other's throats - the pro-American candidate stands poised to score a victory.