Indonesia, BRICS, and the Demand for Nickel

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/04/21/vijay-prashad-brics-industrial-development/

I found Prashad's comments which suggested a comparison between BRICS and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) to be timely and worth serious consideration. Western opponents of the NAM always considered it to be unofficially more friendly toward the Eastern Bloc - itself something of a fiction. In this case, the foes of Western Atlanticism are in BRICS and so one could say everyone's cards are on the table. However, it's important to understand why the USSR and China were happy to deal with NAM nations and the West was not. Unlike the United States they did not assume that everyone who wasn't fully on board with them was an enemy. The US has a tendency to cast geopolitics in such terms - stated so bluntly by GW Bush. "You're either with us or against us." - a stance which may or may not drive nations away in the immediate but in the long term it's a position that destroys trust and respect.

And second, Prashad discusses the role of nickel when it comes to Indonesia. All geopolitics in the 21st century are also tied in with questions of resources or lack thereof. The US has cozied up to Indonesia and heartily supports the war criminal Prabowo, the president that once led US-trained death squads during the American-backed East Timor Genocide. But like so many other leaders in the Developing World, Prabowo doesn't want to put all his eggs in one basket and so Indonesia is attempting to straddle the fence - forging ties with both Washington and BRICS. The BRICS leaders are fine with this but many in Washington will not be. As such, his nation will be subject to machinations and intrigue and with the kind of money in play, the stakes are high.

The trouble with the World Trade Organization (WTO) spotlights the problems and difficulties with member nations trying to pursue their own economic interests. They're forced to open the door which means the rich and powerful can dominate - as smaller local interests cannot compete. In this case, the EU is irritated that Indonesia is working with regional actors like Japan and China.

It is again noteworthy that while the WTO has been a bludgeon in the hand of Atlanticist imperialism, Trump in his attempt to 'Make America Great Again' is in the process of destroying this weapon so long wielded by Washington and Wall Street. In the America First/Trumpian view of things, the WTO has benefitted China - but that's only half the story at best. Can the WTO survive without the United States? I don't really know. It's possible, and there's no indication the US is about to leave but Trump's actions are functionally rendering the WTO impotent and ultimately irrelevant. As countries come into conflict with the institution they will simply shrug their shoulders and pull out. The world is changing and with BRICS, there are more options available.

Trump has already blocked several WTO processes - this from his first term and now in the last month he is blocking US funding or 'dues'. The WTO is being provoked to act and censure the United States but the governing body has to know that such moves entail a risk. Trump might just pull out and walk away.

Indonesia is caught in the middle of all this. As Prashad points out - the WTO has no proper appellate body. Everything is paralyzed and the US has silenced its own voice. For things just to continue is to further weaken the WTO and render it irrelevant.

US demand for nickel is expected to triple in the near future. The US has a mine in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. It's not a sufficient amount for US needs. Indonesia controls about 60% of global nickel production. Russia has about 7%. It's ironic but the WTO would be a means the US could employ to force Indonesia to deal with the West, but Trump's America First policies have removed tools from Washington's geopolitical toolbox. Will this lead to a crisis and confrontation? I hope not but the seeds are being sown for such and on multiple fronts. Already voices in the West are speaking of nickel in terms of national security. And given that Indonesia is critical - Prabowo had better watch his back. On the one hand he can become Mr. Popular and be courted by the powerful and rich nations of the world. On the other hand, he could end up in a coffin if he angers the wrong people.

Trump is trying to expand nickel mining - there are possibilities in Minnesota but it's also noteworthy that 46% of US nickel comes from Canada - another reason why Trump wants to dominate Ottawa. The US corporate sector is trying to forge close ties with Canadian mining, but Trump isn't helping to say the least. Regardless, even with all of Canada's nickel - it's not enough to meet the forecasts of US demand.

It's an interesting story to say the least and far from over. From the question of nickel, to the WTO, to Indonesia's geopolitical standing, there's a lot to watch.