Managing the American Drawdown in Europe

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-orderly-us-military-drawdown-alice-rufo/   

It needs to be remembered that Politico is explicitly a pro-European and thus pro-EU publication. The fact that an American drawdown from Europe is being openly discussed and even advocated - that's noteworthy.

For some, it's inevitable given the damage Trump has done to Atlanticism and the NATO alliance. For others, this is desirable and represents the decades-long aspiration (and now opportunity) to pull Europe away from Washington.

Not a few Americans are alarmed. A more independent Europe will turn the EU and its larger population and economy into a competitor and eventual rival. The security apparatus was critical to keeping Europe not just on board with the United States but in line and in a state of semi-subservience.

Trump continues to generate instability and this harms both strategic planning and the European economy. It wreaks havoc in terms of budgets and bureaucratic planning which for a complex system like the EU is destabilizing.

Rutte, the Secretary-General of NATO is doing everything he can to appease Trump and keep him on board. In the meantime he also represents the interests of the European military and security establishment who stand to make windfall profits. This is true whether NATO holds together with its new 5% GDP targets, or if it collapses. Regardless, the goal for such players is to make this new spending the new normal.

This article was written before the recent Ankara summit. The jury is still out in terms of what that summit will mean as Trump both lambasted and praised NATO states - again more chaos. He continues to threaten Denmark, excoriate Spain, and yet offers praise for a dissident state like Türkiye. As usual he's generating more instability, heedless of its effects.

France has long stood poised to be a key European leader in a post-NATO world and yet ironically both Paris and Berlin are beset by political turmoil and in some respects both states are considerably weaker than they were a decade ago - or even five years ago. Macron is a lame duck and France is reeling at the prospect of Le Pen's far-right RN taking power. Germany's coalition is weak, and the AfD continues to rise and currently leads virtually all the polls. The next election isn't slated until 2029 and a lot can happen between now and then. The AfD might win but unless decades of precedent are broken, they will be forced to govern in the context of a coalition. Everyone is waiting to see what will happen if no one will form one with them and Germany falls into a cycle of failed elections.

This uncertainly within the European leadership is giving some parties occasion to pause and to try and salvage the US relationship. Further, there remains a gnawing air of uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict as well as the perceived turn taking place with Ukraine and Russia. While Russia is making small gains on the battle field, Ukraine is changing the dynamics of the war through its new drone capabilities and its degradation of Russian energy infrastructure. Should Moscow react and do something drastic - it will change everything again. It is a time of uncertainty and instability akin to 1991. The optimism of that time was tarnished by the fear of NATO's obsolescence. There's little optimism at the present.