The Right-wing PiS currently controls the Polish parliament
(Sejm) and has come into conflict with the EU over its politicisation of
judicial appointments and its moves toward censorship and restrictive
pro-Catholic social policies.
Brussels has never faced this kind of opposition before.
Forced to assert its authority, the bureaucrats who run the EU are undoubtedly
nervous over a possible backlash. Sanctions are being discussed. Poland may
respond by taming or even forcing out the Law and Justice Party (PiS) or the
citizenry may turn on the EU itself. In this time of uncertainty it would seem
that anything is possible. While the US does not want to see an EU break-up
right now, Poland's position within NATO seems secure.
Finnish Independence has suffered a setback.
While anti-EU sentiment is growing within Finland, it's clear
there's not yet enough support to break with Brussels. This is probably not the
final word on this matter.
In Romania, the Right has taken something of a backseat since
the early 2000's. While various Right-wing parties and movements seemed ascendant
in the 1990s and WWII fascist era figures were being rehabilitated, the country
turned to the EU and NATO in the early 2000s and most of the population
continues to support this posture. Despite various crises and deeply-seated
corruption, the pro-market Centre Left as well as the more Social Democratic
Left continue to dominate the country's politics.
The European Right is sure to be astonished and will react if
the following scenario comes to fruition:
Unlike Greece and Spain, and of course the United Kingdom,
Romania has remained largely pro-European. You can be sure that if the
political instability continues, and now with a potential Muslim candidate for
prime minister... the Right both domestically in Romania and within the larger
European framework will seek to capitalise on this development.
If you know anything about the Tatar communities in the
Balkans, there's precious little to worry about in the way of Islamic extremism,
but that's not the point. It's the optics that will serve as a rallying point
for Right-wing narratives. On the one hand, it could be viewed as a massive
setback, but I think more likely it will provide an opportunity.
A related follow-up to the Romania story:
ReplyDeletehttp://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-head-of-state-and-benefits-of.html