Kyrgyzstan's Latest Round of Unrest

Central Asia is complicated. It's not the Balkans but it's not a region that's easily explained or understood. The current crisis in Kyrgyzstan can be summed as a struggle between two factions – one, the group headed by former president Almazbek Atambayev (2011-2017) who has been in and out of prison and was recently subjected to an assassination attempt.

The rival faction is represented by Sooronbay Jeenbekov who was president from 2017 until 15 October 2020 when he resigned and was replaced by Sadyr Japarov whom we will mention again below.

This is partly an internal struggle over control of the Kyrgyz political order. There's a great deal of corruption and shadowy business dealings, there are international players and as expected there are questions surrounding the black market, drugs and organised crime. Kyrgyzstan has emerged as a key point on the smuggling route between Afghanistan and the Russian Federation. There is also great mineral wealth which continues to play a part in the nation's struggles.

Both of the main factions have a relationship with Russia and during the post-Cold War/War on Terror period Bishkek has stayed pretty consistently in the Russian camp. They permitted the United States to operate an air base for a few years after 9/11 but then the Kyrgyz leadership reverted to the Russian side and has stayed pro-Moscow ever since.

The difference is Atambayev (who at last notice was back in prison again) has worked to cultivate close ties with Turkey. The region is a cauldron of Russian, Chinese, Subcontinental, and Western (EU and USA) influence. There's the factor of Islam but then there are additional dynamics concerning Turkic and Persian identity. In starts and stops, Istanbul has been reaching out to the region since the 19^th century. The US supported this Pan-Turkism until the rise of Erdogan. Since then it's proven to be a more complicated issue.

Jeenbekov is less interested in Turkey but has indicated a willingness to deal with the European Union and as I've mentioned in other writings this a way of triangulating – avoiding the United States and its entanglements and yet breaking out from the confines of Russian influence. For the nations of Central Asia, the EU offers new opportunities and some leverage in terms of their regional geopolitics and economics. Jeenbekov has also proven more willing to embrace Beijing which will frustrate the other regional players. Moscow and Beijing are allies when it comes to opposing Washington but within the Central Asian theatre they are rivals.

And to further Russian frustrations, Jeenbekov has shown some willingness to repair some of the diplomatic difficulties with Japan, South Korea and other nations of the US bloc.

And yet the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has turned against Jeenbekov and declared the 2020 Parliamentary election to be flawed. This has led to some head scratching but again, there's a lot in play, a lot of corruption and complicated dynamics at work. The challenging of the election could in fact be a ploy to clean house and bring in technocratic government – one that Brussels can deal with more readily.

But it gets even more complex...

As mentioned above, in October 2020 the recently incarcerated Sadyr Japarov has taken over. Favoured by Moscow, he's described as a 'right-wing nationalist' by some and yet he's not a neo-liberal in that he has advocated nationalisation of the controversy-laden Canadian owned Kumtor Gold Mine. This will pique Anglo-American interests to be sure. Ottawa, Washington and even London will work to undo his agenda.

Finally it should be noted that the Kyrgyzstan unrest represents another Turco-Russian fault line – and another instance of unrest on the Russian periphery. Even as Turkey and Russia are under strain due to the Armenia-Azerbaijan struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh, there are a host of tensions in Central Asia that could quickly turn the Turco-Russian relationship into one of antagonism.

The timing is rather convenient I must say. If it's a 'coincidence' then there are not a few in Washington who are thankful for it. And yet Moscow is not being idle. They have launched the CA+1 agenda, attempting to forge a new Central Asia bloc that corporately maintains close ties with Russia. They're trying to shut out the outsiders – at least those Moscow doesn't want to let in.

This is all part of what has rightly been called The Great Game 2.0, a repeat and enhancement of the 19^th century great game for control of Central Asia. British India is no longer in play but BJP-led India is in the equation. But the primary players are the United States, Russia, and China and on a secondary level nations such as Iran, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and the EU play a part. The region is critical to control of Eurasia and the region is rich with natural resources.

In the 1990's and early 2000's the focus was on petroleum and natural gas. But as the new digital and battery economy is emerging, greater attention is being given to mineral resources and the region is rich with them – Kyrgyzstan in particular.

There is the additional factor of Islamic extremism and the corollary conflict between the US and China. Remember Xinjiang is just next door and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is quietly supported by Washington. ISIS has fragmented but it's a player in the region and has already been demonstrated to be subject to manipulation by larger powers.

There are Lutherans and Anabaptists in Kyrgyzstan mostly descendants of Volga Germans who were exiled to the region during World War II. Stalin broke up their Volga colonies and scattered them to the winds out of fear they would join up with the Nazis who were besieging Stalingrad to the south of their Republic centered in Saratov Oblast. Other German colonists were based in the Black Sea region and the Caucasus. Stalin rounded them all up along with several populations from Caucasia and deported them to Central Asia. Some groups returned in the 1950's and 1960's – but some never did and live there still.

There are other Evangelical groups within the country. They are forced to lay low and function in an underground state of existence. There are others in the country such as Koreans who also have produced considerable numbers of Christians. We ought to pray for these people as they are non-political actors that are caught up in the turmoil. The state and society are officially Islamic but at the same time the state is combating radicalism and extremism. The tensions fuel radicalism and the various Salafi groups like to target Western connected groups such as Christians. The governments of the region often look the other way. They're not interested in stopping the harassment of Christians. It's a difficult situation and demands our attention and prayer.

And as Westerners we should certainly avoid supporting American institutions such as Wall Street, the Pentagon and the State Department that continue to agitate and foment troubles in the region. They are not on the Church's side and in some cases Washington has proven keen to support Islamist groups if the instability they generate serves the larger geopolitical interest. And these same Western entities are always happy to use Christians. Human Rights are a convenient diplomatic tool and one the American state can wield more effectively if they have Evangelical money and popular support behind them. While we want the persecution to stop, the identification of the Church with the violent power of the American Empire is a terrible even fatal mistake but it's one American Evangelical leaders continue to pursue.

See also:

http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2016/09/karimovs-death-and-its-implications-for.html

http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/06/evangelicals-in-uzbekistan-hope-and.html

http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2019/12/movement-and-summits-in-central-asia-eu.html

http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2019/11/isis-scatters-to-four-winds-and-to.html

http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2019/06/tajikistan-persecution.html

http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2018/12/kazakhstani-intrigues-and-plot-in-italy.html

http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2017/01/the-church-in-central-asia-caught-in.html