Red Flags in Israel: A Tectonic Shift in Palestinian Politics

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/After-15-years,-Fatah-and-Hamas-agree-on-Palestinian-elections-51128.html

The recent US-motivated Arab peace deals with Israel, the so-called 'Abraham Agreements' have inadvertently healed old wounds. Hamas arose in the 1980's in response to Yasser Arafat's compromises – a perceived sellout that would eventually lead to the Oslo Accords in 1994.

Under Ariel Sharon's leadership, Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, the same year Arafat died or was murdered. Elections in 2006 led to a Hamas victory which then led to a civil war with the Arafat aligned and Tel-Aviv supported Fatah Movement which continued to govern the West Bank.

Since then Hamas and Gaza have been international pariahs supported only by their Arab allies. The division of the Palestinians into a Hamas-Gaza sector and a Fatah (which came out of the PLO) run West Bank meant that the Two-State Solution was effectively dead. Cynics will point to the machinations of Sharon, Netanyahu and other members of the Israeli Right who effectively created this situation, have perpetuated it and profited from it. Netanyahu has used the diplomatic interlude to expand West Bank settlements to the point that a Two-State solution is really no longer viable.

After the 2006-2007 civil war Hamas and Fatah have been enemies. And yet the recent Abraham Agreements have brought a functional end to this split. For the first time in fourteen years the Palestinians are united once more.

It's not the simple of course. Fatah is highly corrupt and large portions of its budget are fulfilled by the Israel and the United States.

But the Palestinian abandonment/betrayal has also opened up two new alliances. In addition to support they might receive from Iran, there are two Middle Eastern players that are opposed to the growing Saudi-Arab coalition and as such are eager to increase their profile in supporting the Palestinians. These nations are Qatar (the Gulf Arab pariah state) and Turkey. It's no accident that Ankara brokered the peace between Hamas and Fatah.

And it may also be said that there are those in Washington and Tel Aviv that won't like this development – Turkey in the role of broker and mediator. Given the brewing trouble in the Eastern Mediterranean and the potential role of Palestinian diaspora, there are those who will shudder at the possibilities.

A harbinger of trouble, Israel won't like this development and will seek to sabotage it. A worst case scenario for them is another Middle Eastern proxy war. It could easily enough begin across the border in Lebanon or Jordan and quickly spread into Israeli territory.