The
Austrian government had intelligence from Slovakia that the gunman was acting
suspiciously and there were indications that he might be planning some sort of
attack. And it should be to no one's surprise that Berlin was also aware of him.
As one who has been following these stories for years, this
marks yet another instance of an Islamic militant that was on German radar –
which means it's also likely that the US was aware of him. The BND and the
larger German government have played a critical role in the US-sponsored
manpower and weapons pipeline from Western Europe into the Syrian theatre.
These same agencies have been repeatedly demonstrated to have gunman and
attackers under surveillance and in other cases the connections run deeper as
some of these militants (or paramilitaries in another context) seemed to have
direct contact with intelligence agency handlers. At this point the story
usually turns to either a 'gone rogue' or 'Keystone Cop' narrative but these
explanations don't stand up to scrutiny. Those familiar with the European
context and America's role in the Balkans will not be surprised to learn that
the shooter (Kujtim Fejzulai) was an ethnic Albanian.
The interesting outcome in this case is that Kurz's Right-wing
government is now empowered to clampdown on militant Islam across Austria. And
Kurz has sent signals that he intends to overhaul and reform the BVT –
Austria's domestic intelligence agency.
With the Libya project stuck in a quagmire and the Syrian War
a failure, Europe seems tense – poised for another round of upheaval.
Coronavirus is undoubtedly playing a part and who would really doubt that
governments aren't using the pandemic as a justification for a power-grab. That's
really to be expected. And yet one wonders if something more, something far
grander is in the offing?
Under Trump, the United States has lost considerable clout
and Atlanticism seemingly hangs by a thread. Macron has stepped up and asserted
France's role as a global leader. While Trump hasn't really noticed, the
American Establishment is seething and further weakened in Europe by Brexit –
Washington no longer has its London proxy to assert its positions in Brussels.
Social tensions have driven the European Establishment to
fear, unrest, Right-wing violence, and political upheaval. The economic crisis
brought on by Covid has only amplified already existing tensions and if the
tensions explode on the street it isn't hard to imagine Neo-Nazis and Islamists
at war. These convenient attacks in places like France and Austria are being
utilised to reign in what Americans would consider First Amendment freedoms and
to quash sub-cultures – but given that these movements have grown exponentially
over the past decade, it won't be easy, and a lot of otherwise innocent and
involved people are going to feel the effects of these policies. I'm thinking
of Biblically-minded Christians who are going to be curtailed in their ability
to homeschool among other things. And yet the Right-wing and even Neo-Fascist
groups aren't really getting the attention. They're not being seriously
condemned or targeted.
Austria has flirted with the posture of the Visegrad Group or
V4 (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary) the loosely aligned
EU-member bloc of former Warsaw Pact nations that have attempted to assert the
interests of Central-Eastern Europe vis-à-vis the power centres of Berlin,
Paris, and especially Brussels. By no means united, the bloc has opposed the EU
at critical points and both Poland and Hungary's current governments have a
fairly acrimonious relationship with European leadership.
In recent years Right-wing governments in places like
Austria, Italy, and Slovenia have flirted with V4 positions and as such these
nations are in something of an internal political tug-of-war. Salvini was
forced out in Italy, in part due to his own overreach – but he's still very
much a power in the realm of Italian politics. Kurz's political setback forced
him into coalition government. Depending on how one wishes to understand the
situation, these Islamist attacks and the response to them might drive a nation
like Austria back into the mainstream EU or it could run the risk of driving it
more in the direction of the dissident V4. Security issues will open up
opportunities for the US to continue its long-term rapprochement with Vienna.
The nations have never been very close. There's a fair bit of
bad blood going all the way back to US support for Austrian revolutionaries
like Lajos Kossuth in the 19th century and Woodrow Wilson and his almost
personal crusade to dismantle of the Habsburg Empire in the aftermath of WWI. And
while the US helped Austria with the Marshall Plan, not all Austrians
appreciate the US role in occupied Austria (1945-1955) and how their nation
became a pawn or in the dangerous US contest with the USSR.
Germany for its part must tread carefully when it comes to
Austria due to the tense history between the nations which reached its dark
climax during the Anschluss period. And yet there are elements within the
German Establishment that would like to see Vienna and Berlin in a closer
relationship. It would be advantageous to both nations at critical points. This
is especially true as some (looking ahead) foresee a day in which the EU may
fragment. It's yet another case of history rearing its head – as is the V4.*
Though Austria is constitutionally committed to neutrality
there are certainly 'workarounds' as has already been seen since the end of the
Cold War. It's complicated and in the end whether the Vienna attack was random
or not – many parties will be attempting to capitalise upon it.
Whatever course the intrigues and scheming take, the Austrian
Right is sure to gain as this attack plays into their narrative. The big losers
are the Islamic community, other sub-cultures within Austria, and the authority
and standing of the EU which is sure to suffer in the face of nationalist
sentiment.
----
*One is reminded of statements made by diplomats and
geopolitical thinkers regarding the Habsburg monarchical system – that had it
not existed someone would have had to create it. This was said in the context
of its role as a kind of glue which held together the complex political and social
plurality of Central and Eastern Europe – something diminished in the creation
of largely homogeneous states in the aftermath of the World Wars. The V4 bloc points
to common interests in the realm of Mitteleuropa (as it was understood in the
19th century) and hints of a kind of Neo-Habsburg bloc (sans the
Habsburg monarchy).
See also:
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2018/04/v4-visegrad-group-and-its-place-in.html
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