03 November 2020

Trump +1383: The Second Term and the Coming Praetorian Purge

https://www.axios.com/trump-firing-wray-haspel-esper-088cbd70-3524-4625-91f1-dbc985767c71.html

There are indications that if Trump stays in office he plans a purge – a move that will alarm some within the Establishment as it indicates he's prepared to adopt a completely reckless attitude in his second term. And given the way he's conducted himself over the past four years, that's really saying something.


His iconoclasm will continue even while he panders to certain elements within the Establishment. A friend to Wall Street and the Pentagon, Trump is suspicious of the American Deep State which despite the protestations of CNN and the like is in fact a real thing. And it didn't originate with Trump. It's been talked about for decades and the FBI and CIA play important roles within it. These are the Praetorians who defend the order despite who holds the throne (or Oval Office).

And yet Trump is attempting (or will attempt) to purge these elements. A dangerous move at any time, it may be his undoing or it may mark his triumph and the rise of a new epoch in American history. And while the current arrangement is ugly and has led to great suffering around the globe, the new order that Trump seeks to establish will not be pretty.

In the early 4th century the Praetorians backed Maxentius and when he was defeated by Constantine (the Great), the new emperor dismantled them and scattered them to the winds. Their power was broken.

Other emperors tried and failed as have other presidents such as John F Kennedy. The price of failure has often been quite high.

They have been moving tepidly against Trump. It would seem they've tried to use and control him and in other cases manipulate him to their advantage but on certain points he's proven recalcitrant and destructive. It's clear they want him gone but he's not going to go quietly. We may see his first move on election night as there are indications that he plans to declare victory early. This is assuming that the in-person votes which are counted immediately (and affect exit polls) will give him the advantage. Then in subsequent days when the mail-in ballots move the needle over into the Biden column, the Trump team will call 'foul' and 'fraud'.

It could get very interesting indeed especially if his paramilitaries take to the streets.

Trump may get away with a lot but it's complicated as figures like Attorney General Barr are clearly part of the Deep State-Praetorian structure. Barr has been a longtime agent of US intelligence and when I spoke of them using and manipulating Trump – I think of figures like Barr who operates with his own agenda and often independently of Trump. Will Trump retain him or purge him? It might 'tip the scales' either way. I'm surprised in some ways they haven't moved more aggressively against Trump but the threat of Civil War is real and frankly controlling the narrative of something like an assassination isn't as easy as it once was. It's an awful risk even for those in power. The political risks are low as Pence would easily slip into the role and would not conduct himself like Trump but the problem is no one believes Pence can control the Trumpian street – the increasingly armed, militant, and dangerous Trump-inspired radicalised street.

We'll all be holding our collective breath waiting to see what the November 2020 to January 2021 time-frame has in store.

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