Russia: Protector of Oriental Christendom in the Face of Armenian Defeat

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-armenia-azerbaijan-karabakh-russia/putin-tells-azerbaijan-to-take-care-of-christian-shrines-in-nagorno-karabakh-idUKKBN27U0OJ

From Putin's standpoint this call to protect Armenia's Christian legacy is an attempt to recover face. Moscow dropped the ball in terms of its larger Orthodox narrative. It did not come to the aid of Armenia and turn back the tide of the Turk. Azerbaijan clearly won this round as Armenia, defeated and broken was forced to abandon the field and cede large portions of Artsakh, the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave it had captured in the 1990's.

The conflict over this territory (and others) has gone on for ages and was hotly contested during the early 20^th century. The formation of the Soviet Union which included both Azerbaijan and Armenia arrested this historical enmity but it did not die and re-emerged in the 1980's as the USSR was imploding.

Up to this point the victories belonged to Armenia. They had carved out territory in Azerbaijan and seemed the stronger force – tacitly backed by Moscow.

But now the situation has changed. Moscow's hands were tied as any attempt to side too strongly with either the Armenians or the Azeris would throw the region's politics into turmoil giving advantage both Ankara and Washington – powers that in this case stand opposed to Russian regional interests.

For its part Armenian society is in a state of turmoil. The people are incredulous and angry and are taking out their anger on their government and Moscow. The Pashinyan administration is being blamed for the defeat and there is anger that he was willing to effectively surrender. But from Pashinyan's standpoint Armenia had been militarily defeated and faced not only the collapse and loss of Karabakh in its entirety but potentially an invasion into Armenia proper. He saved the nation from further defeat but his government is not likely to last.

The traditional Russian ally failed and thus Armenia is forced to engage in some serious soul searching and reassessment of its regional position. But one has to wonder if Putin's reticence was in part due to Pashinyan's posture vis-à-vis Moscow? He has been a longtime critic of Armenia's dependence on Russia and while he's done nothing to formally break with Moscow or move toward NATO – his nationalist policy can't have been very pleasing to Vladimir Putin.

But now as 2020 comes to an end, Pashinyan is broken and his policy is dead. However it may play out in popular anger toward Russia and result in a move toward Armenia's other regional ally – Iran.

This is the context for Putin's intervention – after Armenia had been defeated. And now Russia is attempting to reassert its role as protector of Oriental Orthodoxy and it is being careful to arrest Turkish advance while not being too confrontational. So much of the Armenian heritage has been destroyed in Anatolia. While Moscow can't push around Ankara it can threaten the Aliyev regime in Baku and thus Putin has issued his warning regarding the destruction of Armenian heritage.

The dream of Artsakh isn't dead but nearly so. Russia will maintain the narrow Lachin corridor which connects the exclave to Armenia-proper. Without this road the region would not be viable. Armenia cannot support the region by air alone.

In terms of Armenia's potential shift toward Iran, I was forced into a cynical smile when I recently noticed Evangelical news outlets attempting to pick up the story of Armenian Christians facing defeat and persecution. Dominionism is quick to claim every ethnic Christian group and yet in this case they're wading into complicated waters and siding with the Armenians doesn't always quite harmonize with American policy. Yerevan's natural allies are America's regional foes.

A violent overthrow of the Pashinyan government could destabilise Armenia and with it the larger region. Further Russian intervention will certainly draw the ire of Azerbaijan, Turkey and perhaps more importantly Georgia which remains a spear in the hand of American hawks and warmongers. Russia will be doing all it can to pacify the situation and restore the trust of the Armenian populace. You can be sure American outlets like the NED which have a presence in the nation will be doing all they can to stir up trouble as will the influential and wealthy Armenian diaspora based in Western Europe and the United States. And yet both America and Israel continue to strengthen ties with Baku. They provide logistical support, sell it weapons and it's well known that Tel-Aviv has bases in Azerbaijan which monitor Iran and are poised to strike if the time comes.

This chapter has come to an end but the story is far from over.