https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/6/the-situation-is-dangerous
https://news.yahoo.com/retired-diplomat-hill-bidens-choice-205145262.html
Is Serbia likely to launch an invasion of Kosovo, or attack
one of its other former Yugoslav neighbours? This is unlikely but the recent
military buildup does indicate that the Serbian Establishment is reading the
European situation in a manner similar to figures like Orban of Hungary,
elements within the Polish PiS Establishment, and other Right-wing forces
throughout central and southern Europe. Serbia is not part of the EU but is an
island within it and its currents affect its politics and standing.
These factions and political leaders are preparing for the
EU's fragmentation and the potential for conflict in light of such a breakdown.
If it happens, it will serve as a green light for their irredentist and
nationalist ambitions – all of which have been on hold since the conclusion of
the World Wars.
There will be elements within the United States, UK, and
portions of Western Europe that will see Putin as the 'Dark Lord' conspiring
and orchestrating these events – though that is certainly not the case in
Poland which is quite hostile to Russia. Serbia is set like a dagger into the
heart of the Balkans and on the threshold of Eastern Europe. I have no doubt
there are literal lamentations in Western quarters over the failure to secure
Serbia during the 1990's. By 2001, the US and NATO were pulled into other
directions and the Balkans were allowed to simmer. Efforts were still made in
the region as exemplified by the large NATO expansion in 2004, but by Bush's
second term and all the disasters that came with it, US focus was elsewhere and
over the next fifteen years the situation would change and deteriorate.
Whether one sees Putin as the grandmaster and manipulator of
the situation or not, it is certain that he's seeking to capitalise upon it.
And yes, the historical ally found in Belgrade is undoubtedly part of Moscow's
plan to destabilise the region – just as the Albanians (both in Albania and
Kosovo) are an essential component of Washington's plan for Southeastern Europe.
Tensions have escalated in Kosovo as of late. The Serbian
minority for the most part refuses to recognise Kosovar independence. It's
noteworthy (though never reported in Western media) that Kosovo is actually
only recognised by ninety-some countries, meaning that half of the world
refuses to legitimise the US-backed project which came to fruition with the
declaration of independence in 2008.
There can be little doubt that the criminal elements found in
the Serbian enclaves of Kosovo have connections to Belgrade – just as the
Albanian elements are connected to Pristina, Tirana, and other Western
political centres. I would also suspect the criminal and paramilitary elements
tend to blend. It's a pattern seen the world over. Both Belgrade and Moscow
resent what the US did in the Balkans in the 1990's and there's little doubt
they're trying to make trouble and roll-back American influence. While this is
sinister to be sure, few in the West seem to make the connection that the US
'made trouble' in the 1990's, and interjected itself into the region's politics
and engaged in two separate wars resulting in broken nations and thousands of
deaths. The humanitarian gloss put on US actions was heavily marketed by
Western media but those engaged, those who had been following events and
relating them to history knew better and what was revealed in the years after
only vindicated their cynicism regarding Washington's narrative.
After serious attempts to wine and dine Serbia during the
Obama years and to re-engage the Balkan region, Belgrade has taken a fairly
deliberate (but historical) turn toward Moscow. The plan for Serbia to join the
EU and even NATO – plans pushed by Western-connected elements within Serbia,
are in light of recent developments now in some doubt. That said Vučić is careful and continues to keep relations cordial with
Europe and the United States. He grants concessions and signs deals (which
Western media attempt to trumpet at every opportunity) even while he continues
to develop his relationship with Moscow and purchase arms. He has shed much of
the packaging from his nationalist past but his actions demonstrate that while
he has triangulated his perspective and agenda he's a far cry from the kind of
leader the Brussels and Washington Establishment would like to see in Belgrade.
Even moderates within the Serbia leadership seem to have
embraced this pivot and given that NATO is still attempting to expand into the
Balkans and the Turks continue to encroach on the region by appealing to its
Muslim populations, it's not that surprising that nationalist elements are
crying 'enough' and making preparations for a day of reckoning that's still on
the distant horizon – but one getting ever closer.
Additionally, while the US wields massive sway in Kosovo and
Albania, there are divisions and scandals and some of the war criminals (who
were US assets) from the 1990's are finding themselves in difficulty. This has
created a volatility in Albanian politics and one the Serbs are watching and
studying very carefully.
The fact that Biden is sending in Christopher Hill sends a
signal. It shows that he's serious about arresting this trajectory. Hill's job
will be to win the Serbs back over into the Western column or at the very least
throw a wrench into the budding Belgrade-Moscow alliance. A career diplomat and
servant of the US Empire, Hill is undoubtedly the most qualified person for the
task. Pulling him from the academy (which was effectively his retirement)
demonstrates just how badly Biden wants him for this task. The US is putting
its primary focus on China but it knows the situation in Europe is
deteriorating and also volatile. The US has a strategy but part of its plan is
to put out (or at least smother) some of the fires with the hope that figures
like Putin, Orban, and others will drop from the scene in a few years. It's
complicated but the last thing the US wants (at this moment) is to get pulled
into another Balkan mess. China for its part is looking to sell weapons and cut
infrastructure deals and Russia will not only provide arms, but aid and
strategic resources.
From the standpoint of the US it is undoubtedly prudent that
Biden and his team have grasped that it would be far better to assuage the
tension then to let it escalate – which is something it could do very quickly.
Once again, we must continue to watch developments within the
region. It's quickly turning into a Cold War-like situation – different but the
same.
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