Sudan faces more turmoil with the October 2021 military coup.
Western media tends to report on the nation's 'progress' which is measured in
terms of how much the nation is under the thumb of Western investment and
political policy. For the Sudanese the metrics are often quite different.
The ousting of Omar al-Bashir in 2019 marked a major victory
for US-led Western interests. Washington had sponsored the creation of South
Sudan in 2011 which left the north in a potential crisis as the southern region
contained the nation's oil resources. The creation of South Sudan represented a
defeat for China which had close ties with Khartoum and was invested in the
infrastructure of their oil industry. Civil war was the result in the South, and
a decade later the situation remains fragile.
Since the 2019 coup, the US has not been idle and has made strident
diplomatic and financial moves to secure Sudan and place it firmly in
Washington's column. But there have been some difficulties. China and Russia
have been undoubtedly angered over this move, both nations facing the prospect
of lost investment and for Russia's part, their hopes of a Red Sea military
port have been thrown into question. The interim government put the agreement
on hold – undoubtedly under tremendous pressure from Washington.
Washington for its part sought to bring the new regime into
debt slavery by encouraging substantial IMF loans. A Western-imposed privatisation
programme ensued, which has resulted in cuts to fuel subsidies and the like.
The consequence has been massive inflation and increased difficulty for the
Sudanese poor.
And now a new military coup. What does it mean?
A coup was recently attempted in September 2021, reportedly
by elements formerly associated with the Bashir regime. It's not clear if the
successful October coup led by General al-Burhan is motivated by the same
interests or not, though it seems likely enough. Al-Burhan seems to be friendly
enough with the al-Sisi regime in Egypt, and the governments in both Riyadh and
Abu Dhabi – which would place him more in the Western-oriented column. It's
just not clear, but the interim government was in Washington's favour and so
this is likely a case of the official rhetoric matching actual sentiments
within Washington. In other words the Americans are not happy about this
development and view it as a setback.
One angle to consider is that al-Burhan knows the junta has
alienated Washington but if they can find some regional cover, they might be
able to find a modus vivendi with the
West. Egypt's Al-Sisi remains in good standing with Washington but at the same
time he'd like to see action taken against Ethiopia regarding the GER Dam on
the Blue Nile. If statements are made by the new military government to this
end, al-Sisi will likely stand by them and mediate between the junta and
Washington.
I'm sure there are Sudanese military elements that are bitter
regarding Bashir's overthrow. The IMF-privatisation programme instigated by the
US opens the door to Western investment but it has also destroyed the state-run
infrastructure and monopolies which provided a steady stream of money into the
pockets of those connected to the now ousted Bashir regime. Others have raised
the issue of the ICC and the fact that the transitional government is prepared
to hand former president Bashir over to The Hague. This would also place top
military brass in danger. If Bashir is convicted of war crimes in Darfur, then
many generals and officers are likely to face indictments.
And I don't doubt there are outside elements (like Moscow and
Beijing) that are attempting to influence the situation. We already know
Washington is involved. They have supported the transitional government and
while they haven't always been happy with the results I don't think there was
anything (at least not openly known) that would drive Washington to sponsor or
encourage a coup. I'm guessing this is part of the tug-of-war, a new chapter in
the struggle for control of the country.
Even if the coup was purely born from internal sources –
disgruntled military elements connected to the old regime, the door has now
been swung wide open and you can be sure the Gulf nations, as well as Beijing,
Moscow, and even France are looking for angles, deals, and opportunities to
exercise influence. There's a lot of money at stake as well as control of gold
and oil. And given the neighbourhood, with the instability in neighbouring Chad
and the war across the border in Tigray, not to mention the Red Sea/Suez Canal
trade corridor through which a great deal of the world's oil passes – there are
a lot of African leaders and international interests concerned over what
happens in Sudan.
See also:
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/11/the-sudan-junta-blackmailed.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/07/trouble-on-nile.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-context-for-tigray-revolt.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/12/russian-eyes-on-red-sea.html
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