The Pilgrim Underground: Ukraine and Tensions Within the V4

08 January 2023

Ukraine and Tensions Within the V4

https://www.politico.eu/article/moment-of-truth-for-polish-hungarian-toxic-relationship-approaches/

As regular readers will know, I have been keen for some time to follow the Visegrad Four or V4 group, a faction within the EU. The loose alliance came together as three nations in the early 1990's, and then became four with the Czech-Slovak split. All four nations joined the EU in 2004 – certainly with some mixed feelings. While the four countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary) have never been fully unified, the bloc was established to preserve common interests among these nations of Central (and once 'Eastern') Europe.

With Brexit, this generally America-friendly and appreciated bloc gained some prominence as a means for Washington to run interference within the EU – especially with regard to American interests as perceived by Right. The nations also have their own conservative and Right-wing interests that have led them into tensions and political conflict within the EU. Hungary's Viktor Orban has become the bad boy of the EU and Poland's PiS has also been criticised for anti-democratic and anti-liberal policies. In both cases they have generated quite a headache for Brussels as the EU mandarins seek to hold their grandiose European project together.

Right around the same time that Brexit became a reality, Europe witnessed a resurgence of Right-wing parties. While Prague and Bratislava have had their own minor tiffs and disagreements with Brussels, these smaller nations have proven to be less of a factor in the Right's resistance to EU rule. They too have flirted with Right-wing politics and policies and yet Brussels greatest concern is the spread of the Right – not just in the V4, but across the whole of Europe. Poland and Hungary have led the way and have proved inspirational to these movements and what they hope to accomplish. And to be clear Right-wing politics are always going to be associated with nationalism and thus in almost every case we see anti-EU/Eurosceptic sentiment – a deathblow to the larger European project. This is why it is such a threat.

For the US, this rising nationalism requires careful navigation. Nationalism is good when it weakens the EU and its aspirations but bad if it ultimately leads to a breakdown of Atlanticism and Washington's primary tool in the form of NATO. And in light of the now open conflict with Russia, Washington is keen to put all the Right-wing energy on the back-burner and keep Europe united and NATO strong. But it's not so easy to put the genie back into the bottle.

And now we have a Right-wing coalition in power in Italy – the third biggest economy in the EU. Right-wing parties have also moved in and out of power in Austria (which is in many ways close to the V4 and its interests), and we've also seen the Right surge in places like Spain, Sweden, Slovenia, Holland, and even France and Germany.

In light of this context, the Ukraine War has thrown up considerable obstacles to this otherwise anti-Brussels trajectory and now has generated not just a fissure but a chasm within the V4 itself. Poland and Hungary are now divided as Poland has remained absolutely hostile to Moscow. In fact no small part of Polish nationalism is dependent on being anti-Russia, a stance deeply rooted in its history.

Hungary for its part is less hostile to Russia and increasingly Orban refuses to play to the Brussels and Washington line regarding Ukraine. There are economic, cultural, and even political reasons for this. As such, Warsaw and Budapest are increasingly at odds over EU foreign and energy policy. The two most powerful and influential members of the V4 no longer represent a unified bloc.

For the EU, this unofficial schism is a positive development as the V4 has always been a thorn in its side and you can be sure glasses are being raised in Brussels at the prospect of the V4 being consigned to the dustbin. The EU Establishment would love to see the PiS removed from power in Poland but at this point they would gladly endure the pro-Catholic nationalist party if it meant a weakening of Orban's power and a pathway to his ultimate removal. And yet that seems unlikely at this time.

From the standpoint of the United States, this development is unfortunate as it weakens the hand of the V4 and yet I'm also sure there are elements within Washington that are less than pleased with Orban's tepid support for the Ukraine War. At one time the US was pleased to see robust opposition to Brussels within the framework of the EU – long viewed as a rival and potential long-term threat to US hegemony.

But in light of The Ukraine War and in terms of the passing of America's Unipolar Moment, Washington would like a strong ally in the EU – and thus in NATO. The Pentagon has been planning for conflict with Russia and China for some time and in both scenarios NATO plays a significant role in terms of military, financial, and diplomatic support. The war with Russia is already underway via the proxy war in Ukraine and NATO is fully engaged – even Orban is limited in his ability to resist, and the new Italian government under Meloni has (so far) been keen to demonstrate its allegiance. The Ukraine War has created a compelled unity within NATO and the EU. The only resistors are Hungary (within the EU) and Türkiye in terms of NATO.

China's shadow still looms large and looking ahead the US wants a united front, and even now is labouring to bring NATO interests to the east and the Indo-Pacific. The need for V4 resistance within the EU seems distant at this time and it's likely that Orban will experience greater pressure to conform. It is this context that also helps to explain his recent and aggressive outreach to the American Right. He is now one of their icons, a hero on the international stage for his conservatism and culture war. He will continue to cultivate this relationship and rely on the strength of these ties to counter whatever ire he generates within the US Congress and Pentagon over NATO and EU foreign policy.

We may be seeing the beginning of the end for the V4 but as it fades, it isn't too hard to imagine a new Right-wing bloc arising within Europe – especially once the war in Ukraine is pacified.

The Pilgrim Underground

08 January 2023

Ukraine and Tensions Within the V4

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