The 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections

https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-braces-for-far-right-wave-as-eu-election-looms/

It's too difficult to tell if there will be a Right-wing wave in the June 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections. For years the Right has been predicted to win in France and yet always seems to fail in the second round. In other words, when it comes down to it, people are willing to vote strategically rather than stick to one party come what may. It's a definite difference when compared to the US winner-take-all system - one that makes a two-party duopoly all but inevitable.

And yet as with France, everyone says the writing is on the wall. One day the Front National/National Rally will win. And it's possible that 2024 will mark the ascendancy of the Right in the EU.

It's notable that the Right-wing parties have sought to forge alliances by means of various fora and manifestos. The immigration issue certainly unites them and yet ultimately Right-wing ascendancy should (at least on paper) mean the demise of the EU as nationalism is incompatible with its pan-national project.

It's one thing to campaign and another to govern - a reality that drives many parties toward the centre. But, this results in the emergence of more extreme parties until the system begins to implode - a phenomena we are now witnessing in the United States.

These things take time to be sure but the dangers are there. The article is an interesting if largely speculative read. And regardless of the result, there are other factors at work that will shape EU politics over the next year or two - Ukraine, Gaza, and of course the 2024 presidential election in the United States.

Will the Right receive a boost from the recent assassination attempt on the life of Slovak prime minister Robert Fico? It's hard to say. The initial suggestion was the attacker was a Left-leaning opponent but as more has emerged, the suggestion is the opposite - or at the very least more complicated.