Some Fall 2026 Elections Worth Noting

In just a few days we've witnessed (and are witnessing) some consequential elections - with the US Mid-term coming up in less than a week.

In Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva stunned the Right by picking up a victory in the second round of presidential elections. The Bolsonaro camp is crying foul but there are indications that many who sat out the first round decided to vote - not because they like Lula, but because they don't want to see another Bolsonaro in charge.

I found it interesting that after his loss, the state wanted to take his passport - a sure sign that they're afraid he'd skulk off to Florida to plan a coup like his father. And sure enough the younger Bolsonaro has slipped through the net and is even now in the United States - in Florida by most accounts. And I think it likely he intends (undoubtedly with CIA help) to make trouble for Lula. The Trump people are not happy about his defeat.

In Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić has made a terrible miscalculation. He called for snap elections and then had it blow up in his face and he's now out of power. For the pro-EU bloc this is an occasion for great celebrations and indeed I'm sure pro-Washington interests will flood the country with dollars hoping to ensure Belgrade keeps its orientation toward the West. It will be in Moscow's interest to engage in the same kind of activity among the nationalist groups. Western media will pick up this story to be sure even while they ignore US meddling. The struggle for Serbia is on - for the West this may be the moment they've been waiting for.

I find it ironic that Vučić was often referred to as a dictator. Like Viktor Orban in Hungary, it would seem the label was misapplied. Dictators don't generally run the risk of an open and honest election and so as with Orban (now with Vučić) we realize that Western media was misrepresenting the situation - with both men losing elections and submitting to the results. That's hardly a surprise is it?

And then we have Netanyahu who is trying to hang on to power in Israel. Apart from an 18-month period, he's been prime minister of Israel since 2009, and this in addition to his short tenure in the 1990's. He is the defining figure of Israeli politics in the 21st century and yet the polls suggest he may be in trouble. But if he's anything he's a survivor who has no morality but an instinct for victory and mass-slaughter. He faces numerous charges and possibly prison and so he's got his back against the wall.

And while some see him as the saviour of modern Israel, others have grown weary of his butchery and then we also have the revelations that he knew that Hamas was planning an attack in October, 2023. He denies this of course, but it's pretty clear he had knowledge - and not just from outside sources.

It was in his interest to have the attack take place as a justification for the genocide in Gaza, the wasting of Hezbollah, and the larger war with Iran. In some respects his plans have been successful but in others they've fallen short. And indeed some will want to support him so that he can push these plans through to completion.

It's also clear that people in the Bush administration knew about 9/11 and yet for similar reasons were (at the very least) content to let the attacks take place. Additionally the role of the Saudis continues to raise uncomfortable questions - indeed the ex-presidents were called out by a surviving spouse at Ground Zero at the 25th anniversary this past September. And yet the US cannot allow the Saudi angle to be fully pursued because it leads right back to White House foreknowledge and complicity. And you will not see either Mike Johnson or Donald Trump cave on these issues either.

As it stands right now, Netanyahu's bloc is tied with the opposition. If this stands, it will mean more politicking and deal-cutting and Netanyahu is by all accounts the master at this. He may indeed survive a little longer.

And finally we saw the first round of the Bulgarian presidential election with the 'pro-Russian' Iliana Iotova scoring a narrow victory. The second round will be this upcoming weekend. Should she win, she will continue to serve alongside Prime Minister Rumen Radev who took office back in May. He also is considered to be pro-Russian and thus Bulgaria is potentially set to become a more established member of the anti-EU bloc - and perhaps leading voice, even as Orban has exited. Serbia hasn't been in the EU but the EU is nevertheless celebrating the removal of Vučić who has long frustrated Brussels.

The presidential role in the Bulgarian system is not a particularly strong one but simply having an ally will not hurt. Iotova has been President since January and thus a victory for her will keep the status quo at the executive level.

Obviously everyone will be watching the ongoing Israeli contest and the November 3, American elections will be monitored all around the globe. It is by all accounts a referendum on Trump and may mark a downgrading of his political power. At which point, everyone will be waiting to see how he behaves and how far he'll push his lawlessness.